Barclays: Tesla Deliveries at 475,000, FSD and Exports Are Core Drivers

TechFlow reports that, according to Chaoxiang Research, Barclays’ September 18, 2026 research report estimates Tesla will deliver approximately 475,000 vehicles in the third quarter, down 4% year-over-year, exceeding the market consensus of 466,000 vehicles. Regional breakdowns include roughly 165,000 in the US, 137,000 in China, and 71,000 in Europe. In the second quarter, FSD penetration in North American deliveries surpassed 55%, significantly above management's prior guidance of 20% to 30%. Furthermore, exports from the Shanghai factory accounted for at least 20% of Tesla’s global sales this year, with July and August exports surging 92% year-over-year.

Barclays identifies FSD adoption rates and Shanghai exports as the two core factors driving delivery figures above expectations, signaling a positive inflection point for automotive business growth. The firm maintains a neutral rating on Tesla with a $370 price target, against a current share price of $366.20. Market participants should watch for continued signs of robust demand cited by management in Q3, as well as updates on the EU's FSD approval voting progress.