Suspected Lighter Prediction Market Mechanism Exposed: Plans to Adopt HIP-3-Style Whitelist Operating Model

According to TechFlow, on September 21, the codebase for decentralized order book exchange platform Lighter recently included a commit titled "Binary options support," indicating that its ZK Circuits may have begun supporting binary outcome markets (prediction markets). Based on the code, each market has a settlement cap, with share prices trading between 0 and the cap. Upon settlement, positions ultimately reset to zero or reach the cap. Contracts are fully collateralized by USDC, meaning there is no leverage or liquidation involved.

Analysis suggests that Lighter may introduce a "market operator" model, allowing whitelisted operators to create, manage, and settle markets, similar to the HIP-3 deployment model.