Morgan Stanley: iPhone 18 Lead Times Flat, Demand Better Than Feared

TechFlow reports that, according to Chaoxiang Research, a Morgan Stanley research report dated September 16, 2026 states that four days after pre-sales begin for the iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max, the global delivery cycle is 2 to 4 weeks, essentially flat year-over-year. Apple’s second-half production volume for the Pro/Pro Max models is 71 million units, up from 60 million units last year, a 18% year-over-year increase. The US Pro Max delivery cycle is 22.5 days, flat year-over-year; Japan is 29.5 days, 5.5 days longer year-over-year; China is 27 days, 3.5 days shorter year-over-year. The global average Pro Max delivery cycle is 25 days, 0.4 days longer year-over-year.

Morgan Stanley believes that stable delivery cycles alongside a substantial production increase suggest demand may be stronger than market concerns. The firm maintains its Overweight rating on Apple, with a target price of $360 against a current price of $331.34, implying an upside of approximately 8.7%. Morgan Stanley recommends monitoring whether Apple adjusts its production plan in mid-to-late October as a key signal to verify demand strength.