Wintermute: BTC ETF Records First Net Outflow Since June as Market Awaits Fed Rate Decision
TechFlow reports on September 15: According to an article by Wintermute OTC trader @Jjay_dm, for the week ending Sept. 14, BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of $463 million, marking the first negative reading since June's lows. ARK and Grayscale accounted for $371 million in combined outflows, while BlackRock remained flat. As a result, BTC fell 4.4% for the week to close at $76,838, making it the worst-performing asset, while Ethereum dropped 1.5% and altcoins gained 1.0% overall.
On the macro front, U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month (core at 0.3%), above the expected 0.2%, while annual PPI reached 5.4%, prompting Goldman Sachs to revise its September forecast from "hold steady" to "hike". Markets now price in an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike this Wednesday. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, with Brent crude surpassing $105 per barrel and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hitting a 20-year high.
Wintermute notes that following the shift to negative ETF flows, it maintains a neutral rather than a bullish stance on the market. Two key focal points this week: ① On Tuesday, the U.S. Senate will hold a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act (crypto market structure bill), which requires 60 votes to pass; ② On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision. While the rate hike itself is already priced in, any subsequent hawkish commentary—particularly signals regarding continued hikes into Q1 2027—could exert downward pressure on the crypto market.
