Bernstein: Crypto CLARITY Act Passage Odds Rise Above 30%, Shorts Under Pressure

TechFlow reports: According to Chaoxiang Research, a Bernstein research note dated September 14, 2026, indicates that the Kalshi prediction market has revised the probability of the CLARITY Act's passage back above 30%. The CLARITY Act, formally titled the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, aims to establish a federal regulatory framework for the U.S. cryptocurrency market, delineate regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, and clarify exchange compliance obligations and stablecoin revenue rules. The latest draft from Senate Republicans has made substantive concessions on the Trump ethics clause and incorporated a "new circuit breaker" provision to address concerns over deposit outflows from community banks. A procedural vote will take place on Tuesday, followed by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision announcement on Wednesday.

Bernstein suggests that the market's prevailing assumption that the CLARITY Act would fail may soon reverse. The ethical concessions are nearing the maximum extent Democrats could secure. Without the CLARITY Act, it would constitute the worst-case scenario, a situation that also applies to banking lobbying groups. Bernstein assigns an Outperform rating to Circle, Coinbase, and Robinhood, setting price targets at $140, $330, and $160, respectively.