Goldman Sachs: 30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield at 5.3%, Bull Market Will Still Continue

TechFlow reports, according to Chaoxiang Research, that a Goldman Sachs research report on September 11, 2026, indicates the 30-year US Treasury yield has reached 5.3%, near a 20-year high, and the 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed to nearly 5%, marking a new high since October 2023. The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio has decreased from 22 times at the beginning of the year to 19 times, and the index remains within 2% of its historical peak. Goldman Sachs economists expect the Federal Reserve to increase rates by 25 basis points next week.

Goldman Sachs notes that across the past seven rate-hiking cycles, the S&P 500 averaged a negative 2% return three months after the first hike and a positive 9% return over 12 months, posting positive returns in every cycle except 2022. With the current rate market already pricing in more than three 25-basis-point hikes through mid-2027, the bar for policy surprises moving further hawkish has been raised. Equities are more sensitive to long-term rates, as roughly 75% of the S&P 500's present value comes from cash flows beyond the next 10 years. Corporate balance sheet risk is limited, with the S&P 500's interest coverage ratio in the 99th percentile over the past 20 years. Goldman Sachs forecasts S&P 500 EPS of $340 in 2026 and $385 in 2027, setting a target of 8,000 points by the end of 2026 and a 12-month target of 8,300 points.