BIT: Fed Pause on Rate Hikes Could Mark the Start of a Q4 Crypto Rally
TechFlow reported on September 11 that according to BIT's weekly "On Target" report, BIT analysts identified two key market catalysts: first, US debt has surpassed the psychological threshold of $40 trillion, and second, US Treasury yields are approaching the critical 5.0% mark. Since July 24, Bitcoin has gained 22% cumulatively and gold has risen 9.4%, validating earlier forecasts.
Macroeconomic cycle models indicate the current market is in the first phase of cyclical reflation, typically accompanied by a weakening dollar and rising commodity prices. Historical data shows that during this phase:
- US stocks: approximately 29% annualized return
- Gold: approximately 47% annualized return
- Bitcoin: approximately 73% annualized return
Additionally, from 2020 to 2026, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of US debt has reached 8.59%, with M2 money supply CAGR at 6.02%, significantly outpacing CPI growth at 4.11%. Persistent accumulation of long-term inflation pressure further reinforces the investment case for allocating to gold and Bitcoin.
