Garrett Jin: Bitcoin Consolidation Not Yet Over, Rising Macro Risks Do Not Diminish Year-End Support

TechFlow reports that on September 10, Garrett Jin stated in his latest weekly report that after bitcoin reached a high of $82,300 last week, it failed to break through the key resistance at $82,500 and re-entered its trading range, indicating that the current consolidation has not yet ended and the market may not have completed even half of the overall consolidation process. In the short term, spot demand has weakened, supply remains heavy above $82,000, and the risk-reward ratio for chasing rallies or shorting pullbacks within the current range is poor.

The report notes that if bitcoin reclaims $82,500 and receives stronger spot demand support, the next resistance zone will be around $83,000 to $86,000; if it declines, traders should watch the $76,000 to $77,000 support level, with a break likely leading to a rapid test of the $72,000 to $72,500 demand zone. Garrett still estimates roughly a 70% probability that $60,000 will be the low for this cycle, but if price returns near $72,000, further confirmation will be required through volume, absorption metrics, and position turnover.

On the macro front, the report notes that the overall outlook for year-end remains constructive, though rising oil prices and long-term interest rates are adding pressure to risk assets. Long-duration assets such as tech stocks and cryptocurrencies will become increasingly sensitive to economic data and central bank expectations. In the memory sector, the market is beginning to acknowledge that AI demand extends beyond GPUs and will also boost demand for high-bandwidth memory, DRAM, and supporting memory systems. However, related trades are no longer being ignored by the market, and further gains will require more robust earnings upgrade support.