JPMorgan: Four Reasons for a Bullish Outlook on US Stocks, September Rate Hike Decision Hinges on CPI

TechFlow reports that according to Chaowang Research, JPMorgan's September 6, 2026 research report indicates that despite heightened volatility in interest rates, exchange rates, and oil prices, four factors continue to support a bullish stance on U.S. equities: robust growth (with GDP and EPS forecasts being continuously revised higher), interest rates that are not prohibitively high (with rising yields reflecting growth rather than tightening), a U.S. policy inclination toward a weaker dollar, and neutral-to-underweight hedge fund positioning. August non-farm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, significantly exceeding expectations, while the decision on a September rate hike hinges on the September 11 CPI data, with JPMorgan forecasting core CPI to rise by 0.21% month-on-month. The MSCI World Index has gained 12% year-to-date, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed merely 60 basis points, as profit growth continues to digest elevated valuations.

JPMorgan advises maintaining overweight allocations to U.S. equities, AI technology, and gold. Median EPS for S&P 500 companies grew 14% in the second quarter, signaling a broadening earnings recovery. With hedge fund net exposure at merely 40% to 50%, there remains ample room for further position building. The FOMC meeting on the 16th is expected to hold rates steady. On the risk front, an upside surprise in CPI could suppress growth stock valuations, while escalating European trade protectionism may impact select export-oriented U.S. companies.