HTX DeepThink: Employment Resilience Weakens the Case for Pausing Rate Hikes, CPI Becomes the First Stress Test of the New Policy Framework

TechFlow reports that on September 8, Chloe, a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000, significantly exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. This has largely weakened the trading logic that "rapid employment deterioration would force the Fed to pause." Market focus has now shifted to this week's CPI: strong employment does not mean the Fed must raise rates, but it provides greater policy space. Warsh declined to pre-commit at Jackson Hole, meaning this week's inflation data will serve as the first true stress test of the new policy framework. If core CPI fails to show a convincing decline, staying on the sidelines may damage the Fed's credibility in combating inflation.

Risk assets are expected to remain in weak consolidation early in the week before picking a direction after the CPI release. If core inflation eases moderately, the probability of a rate hike will quickly drop, BTC is expected to break above $82,500, and US growth stocks will rebound in tandem; if core inflation re-accelerates, markets will further price in a September rate hike, US Treasury yields may test 5%, BTC could retreat to the $74,000–$77,000 range, and high-valuation AI, Neocloud, and altcoins will face greater pressure.

The baseline scenario for September is not a one-way downtrend, but rather a "rate shock in the first half of the month followed by stabilization and recovery after the FOMC meeting," with BTC's primary trading range expected between $74,000 and $88,000. The fact that the dollar has not strengthened significantly alongside rising rate hike expectations, and BTC continues to hold around the $80,000 level, shows certain market resilience; however, before long-end yields pull back, risk assets still lack the macroeconomic conditions for a sustained one-sided rally.

Note: The content in this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it amount to an offer, invitation to treat, or recommendation for any investment product.