Garrett Jin: Bitcoin Holds Key Support, Maintains Constructive Outlook Amid Macro Pressure Ahead of Year-End

TechFlow reports that on September 3, Garrett Jin, agent for "BTC OG Insider Whale," published market views indicating that the macro environment has noticeably tightened this week. Brent crude oil is approaching $95, and the US 10-year Treasury yield has broken above 4.8%. The probability of the Fed raising rates in September has risen to approximately 70%. Under this pressure, Bitcoin made a slight pullback but successfully held the key support level at $76,600, subsequently rebounding to the highs of the $77,000 range.

On-chain cost basis data shows that a significant amount of new supply has formed in the $75,000 to $80,000 range, providing a strong support floor for the market. The $80,000 to $82,500 range is currently the primary resistance cluster. A daily close above $82,500 followed by a successful retest will serve as a key signal for supply clearance.

Regarding ETF flows, US spot ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $3.5 billion in August, but flows turned mixed at the start of September, with a single-day net outflow of roughly $237 million on Tuesday, while retail activity has also cooled. On the downside, if the daily close breaks below $76,600, and ETF flows, the Coinbase premium, and 7-day net realized profit/loss all weaken simultaneously, it will be considered a clear warning signal.

This Friday's nonfarm payrolls report marks the next major macroeconomic test. If the data comes in hot, it will reinforce rate hike expectations, placing renewed pressure on the $76,600 support level. Overall, with AI spending continuing to advance and corporate earnings showing no signs of deterioration, fundamental expectations remain constructive heading into year-end. However, whether interest rates can halt their accelerating upward trajectory remains the core variable for subsequent market direction.