Goldman Sachs: Crypto Trading Has Fallen for Ten Consecutive Months, Turning Point May Be Approaching
According to TechFlow, according to Chaoxiang Research, Goldman Sachs' August 24, 2026 research report indicates that crypto trading volume fell 30% in July and 21% in August, declining for 10 consecutive months—a duration exceeding the median of the previous five cycles. Trading volume in this cycle has dropped by 75% from its peak, while the total crypto market capitalization rebounded 21% over the past week. Goldman Sachs believes that if the market cap remains at current levels, a turning point in trading volume may emerge.
On the regulatory front, 35% of institutional investors view regulatory uncertainty as their biggest hurdle, while 32% consider regulatory clarity to be the primary catalyst. Recently, the SEC proposed an innovation exemption proposal; over 10 digital asset companies obtained national bank charters from the OCC in 2026, and more than 15 crypto firms have been integrated into the federal banking system. Crypto companies reduced expenses by an average of approximately 5% in 2026, boosting operating margins by about 5.8 percentage points.
Goldman Sachs maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the second half of the year, with sector valuations currently at the 30th percentile over a five-year span. Recommended picks include COIN (price target $196), HOOD ($124), IBKR ($114, on Goldman's US Conviction List), and FIGR ($43). The investment logic varies across three categories: traditional brokerages are positioning for a September turnaround, prediction markets track election cycles, and crypto equities offer a triple catalyst comprising market cap recovery, cost reduction, and regulatory reform.
