Goldman Sachs: Samsung shareholder returns fall short of expectations, FCF expansion supports valuation repair

TechFlow reports, according to Trend Forward Research, that Goldman Sachs noted in an August 23 research report that Samsung Electronics announced its 2026 shareholder return pool is projected to range from 90 trillion to 110 trillion Korean won (a median of approximately 100 trillion), which falls short of the 150 trillion Korean won market expectation previously cited by media. Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating with a common stock target price of 490,000 Korean won, representing a 74% upside from the current share price. The company plans to distribute approximately 30 trillion Korean won in cash dividends in the third quarter, with the remaining portion to be executed upon confirmation in the January 2027 earnings report.

Goldman Sachs estimates that Samsung’s cumulative FCF from 2024 to 2026 will total approximately 270 trillion Korean won. Based on a 50% return ratio, returns in 2026 are projected at roughly 106 trillion Korean won, landing at the upper end of the guidance range. Goldman Sachs forecasts that the return pools for 2027 and 2028 will increase to 179 trillion and 232 trillion Korean won, respectively, while raising its EPS forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 by 1%, 7%, and 11%. At its current share price, Samsung corresponds to an expected P/B ratio of 1.7 times for 2027 and 1.2 times for 2028, with ROE reaching 40% to 50% during the same period. Goldman Sachs considers the risk-reward ratio to be attractive.