Goldman Sachs: China's semiconductor volume self-sufficiency rate rises to 70%, $82 billion capital expenditure target for 2030

TechFlow reports, according to Chaoxiang Research, that Goldman Sachs released the fourth annual report in its CHIPS Act series on August 24. The report indicates that by June 2026, China's semiconductor IC self-sufficiency rate will reach 70%, nearly doubling from 38% in January 2010. Goldman Sachs has raised its 2030 capital expenditure forecast for China's semiconductor industry to $82 billion, up 79% from previous estimates. For the first time, the report covers China's DRAM leader ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), assigning a Buy rating with a target price of RMB 129.

Goldman Sachs projects that the supply-demand gap for advanced logic processes at 7nm and below will narrow from 92% in 2025 to 34% by 2035, while the compound annual growth rate for AI server wafer demand will reach 42%. Under the baseline scenario, China's AI chip market is expected to reach $678 billion by 2030, registering a CAGR of 69% from 2025 to 2030. The DRAM market is projected to hit $257 billion by 2028 at a CAGR of 50%, with HBM posting a CAGR of 188%. China's WFE expenditure will grow by 13%, 20%, and 15% respectively from 2026 to 2028, and the revenue share of domestic equipment manufacturers in the local WFE market will rise from 31% to 38%. Despite increasing localization rates, global equipment suppliers remain key beneficiaries of China's advanced node capacity expansion, prompting Goldman Sachs to recommend Applied Materials, Lam Research, and Onto Innovation.