K33: Bitcoin perpetual contract trading volume falls to three-year low, market enters "hibernation" state

TechFlow News, August 12. According to a K33 research report, as of August 10, the 30-day average trading volume of BTC/USDT perpetual contracts on Binance and Bybit dropped to $10.8 billion, the lowest level since 2023, with only 5% of trading days recording lower volume. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot daily average trading volume fell 18% from last week to $1.8 billion, and 7-day volatility also dropped to 0.6%, hitting the lowest value since Christmas 2025.

K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde pointed out that low trading activity and market sluggishness form a self-reinforcing "hibernation cycle". It is worth noting that Bitcoin perpetual contract open interest remains high, with an average of about 300,000 BTC between June and August, higher than the 2025-2026 average, posing a high risk of liquidation-driven volatility.

The market is currently waiting for the release of U.S. July CPI data on Wednesday. Economists expect CPI to rise 3.4% year-on-year and core CPI to rise 2.5% year-on-year. CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September is about 50%. Bitcoin has been oscillating in the $60,000 to $80,000 range for six consecutive months, retracing about 50% from the historical high in October 2025.