Quantum attacks may first appear in the form of "unexplained intrusions," Tether minting keys could become the primary target

TechFlow News, August 10: According to Cointelegraph, Christopher Smith, founder of blockchain startup Quantus, warned that the first sign of quantum computing cracking modern encryption technology may not be a high-profile theft of Satoshi's Bitcoin, but rather a series of untraceable abnormal wallet asset transfers—attackers do not need to infiltrate devices or exchange systems, and can derive private keys solely from public keys exposed on-chain. Smith pointed out that if an attack occurs, "the only forensic evidence is that there are no traces of intrusion".

In terms of attack targets, Smith believes the most valuable target in the crypto field could be Tether minting keys, allowing quantum attackers to mint USDT out of thin air and quickly sell them off for arbitrage. Sean Cheetham, a security researcher at Blockchain Capital, believes attackers are more likely to prioritize exchange hot wallets to avoid triggering widespread alarm.

In terms of timeline, Smith gives a "50-50" probability of achieving quantum decryption before 2028, while Cheetham believes it is "almost certain" to arrive in the early 2030s. Google already advanced its post-quantum migration schedule to 2029 this March.