BofA: NAND Spot Prices Surge, Storage Cycle End May Be Delayed Until 2028

TechFlow reports, according to TechFlow Research, Bank of America Securities' August 7 research report pointed out that in the first week of August, NAND spot prices for 512Gb to 1Tb rose 5% to 6%, 256Gb rose over 10%, DRAM spot prices rose synchronously by 1% to 2%, performing stronger than seasonal trends. The BofA storage index June reading was 183, still at historical highs.

BofA believes second-tier and white-label OEMs are restocking heavily for the peak season, and traditional DRAM and NAND supply remains tight. Kioxia's Q3 revenue guidance is up 35% quarter-over-quarter, implying nearly a 20% quarterly increase in average NAND prices. BofA expects DRAM and NAND prices to rise another 8% and 3% respectively in Q4.

Entering 2027, price increases will narrow quarter by quarter, but the full-year average price will still be higher than 2026. The real adjustment will be postponed to 2028, with DRAM and NAND average prices decreasing by 8% and 14% respectively at that time. Capital returns will simultaneously increase, with Samsung's special dividend potentially exceeding 30 trillion won, buybacks potentially exceeding 40 trillion won, and SK Hynix also using 50% of free cash flow for returns.