QCP: Current market shows "resilience rather than momentum", bearish news has been digested
TechFlow news, August 7, according to QCP Capital's market report on August 7, BTC rebounded from a low of around $62,500 this week to near $64,000. Despite significant pressure during the period—Strategy sold 1,638 BTC (approximately $104.7 million) last week, the Coldcard security incident affected approximately 5,000 wallets, with estimated losses of about 1,755 BTC (approximately $110 million)—the market did not experience a sustained decline.
The options market also showed no signs of panic, with 7-day and 30-day at-the-money implied volatility at 28.8 and 32.6 respectively, standing at the lower end of the recent range; the 7-day 25-delta risk reversal quickly narrowed from -7.39 to -2.10, indicating a significant alleviation of short-end downside skew.
On the macro level, the U.S. July ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 (a new high in over four years), but employment data softened, with ADP private employment adding only 44,000 jobs; the market awaits the non-farm payroll data to be released later that day (The Wall Street Journal expects an increase of approximately 83,000 jobs). In addition, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has not been fully resolved, with Brent crude oil returning above $83; yen intervention and Japanese government bond yield trends continue to drive global liquidity expectations.
