Goldman Sachs: SpaceX's First Earnings Report Fully Exceeds Expectations, AI Business Becomes New Growth Engine

TechFlow News, August 6, According to Chaoxiang Research, SpaceX's first earnings report after listing showed Q2 revenue exceeded Goldman Sachs' expectations by about 17%, and GAAP operating profit exceeded by about 92%. AI business quarterly revenue was $7.67 billion, far exceeding Goldman Sachs' expectation of $5.6 billion; Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 AI revenue forecast by 49% to $23.3 billion. Starlink broadband subscriber count exceeded expectations, quarterly ARPU remained flat quarter-over-quarter, and management expects to achieve a $100 billion annual revenue run rate by December. Starship's 14th launch may take place within a month, expected to achieve the first orbital attempt.

Goldman Sachs raised the target price from $205 to $220, maintaining a Buy rating; the current stock price of $125 implies about 76% upside potential. Goldman Sachs believes SpaceX is simultaneously opening up three trillion-dollar markets: space launch, satellite connectivity, and AI computing power, short-term lock-up expiration may bring stock price volatility, but the medium-to-long-term risk-reward ratio is attractive. Goldman Sachs expects full-year 2026 free cash flow to be negative $26.3 billion, with capital expenditures remaining high.