xm39 trader liquidated positions just in time to avoid the crude oil plunge, but re-established 10 million in crude oil long positions after the "ceasefire" news
TechFlow reports, August 03, according to Hyperinsight monitoring, the address associated with Polymarket trader "xm39" closed all remaining 82,700 crude oil (CL) long positions on the evening of July 31, with a turnover of approximately $6.904 million, an average closing price of $83.52, realizing a profit of approximately $97,000. Subsequently, the address maintained a defensive empty position on crude oil for two days.
This exit timing was exactly about 1 day prior to the emergence of signals easing geopolitical tensions ["Trump subsequently stated halting the originally planned strike on Iran, and intended to resume negotiations on issues such as opening the Strait of Hormuz"]. After this news broke, WTI crude oil fell over 9% to $80 during Asian hours at one point, hitting a three-week low.
Based on a simple calculation of his closed 82,700 contract position and the average closing price corresponding to the current price, this exit avoided approximately $317,000 of subsequent paper drawdown.
Shortly after the relevant news was disclosed, xm39 re-established long positions at noon on Sunday, first buying 38,400 contracts at an average price of $81.08; during the continued oil price decline this morning, he added 86,700 contracts at an average price of $79.93.
As of press time, the address is currently long 125,100 crude oil contracts with 20x leverage full position, position value approximately $9.970 million, comprehensive average entry price $80.28, floating loss approximately $75,000 (-15.0%); liquidation price is $78.12, only about $1.56 away from the current price.
At the same time, the Polymarket proxy wallet controlled by the same address continued to add to "Will the US invade Iran before 2027" Yes this morning, buying 38,000 contracts at an average price of $0.20, investing approximately $7,600.
His relevant bets have increased to 937,700 contracts, total cost approximately $254,700; calculated at the current quote of $0.205, position value approximately $192,200, floating loss approximately $62,500, loss magnitude approximately 24.5%.
Clearing positions and exiting before the oil price dive, and going long on crude oil again after the geopolitical easing news landed, xm39 obviously has not fully accepted the current easing narrative. However, although his multiple operation timings frequently correspond with macro news, overall he has not recorded large profits.
