CITIC Securities: Short-term Uncertainty and Long-term Opportunities Coexist, Hope Emerges Only After Rate Hike Implementation

TechFlow reports, August 2nd, CITIC Securities stated that after missing the timing of this round of rate hikes, in the short term, US stock valuations face pressure regardless of whether the Fed hikes rates in September. However, from a medium to long-term perspective, the implementation of rate hikes is expected to alleviate valuation suppression. Coupled with the positive stance of the "Productivity and Employment Working Group" towards AI, the US stock AI narrative is expected to persist in the long term.

On July 29, the FOMC held steady for the fifth consecutive time, with three voting members voting in favor of a 25bps rate hike, making internal divisions within the Fed public. The market showed a split reaction of "dovish on the short end, hawkish on the long end". Rising inflation expectations suppressed the US dollar and provided a window for the Japanese Ministry of Finance to intervene in the forex market. The high growth rate of CSP cloud business alleviated concerns about the sustainability of AI triple capital expenditure to some extent. In the short term, interest rate-sensitive industries, high-valuation low-growth sectors, and small-cap stocks are under pressure. The next window for a shift in liquidity expectations focuses on the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August or the September interest rate meeting. (Jin10)