Nomura: ChangXin Surges 471% on First-Day Opening, Target Price of 116 Yuan Implies 12x Upside
TechFlow news, According to Chaoxiang Research, Changxin Technology listed on the STAR Market on July 27, surging 471% at the open, with market cap briefly exceeding 3.3 trillion yuan. Nomura Securities released its initial coverage report on the same day, giving a buy rating, with a target price of 116 yuan, corresponding to 20 times PE based on 2028 EPS of 5.8 yuan, implying over 12 times upside potential calculated based on the issue price of 8.66 yuan. Nomura pointed out that AI is driving a structural explosion in DRAM demand, with AI memory demand CAGR exceeding 60% from 2026 to 2030, while global supply growth is only 30% to 40%, and the supply-demand gap will continue to widen.
As the fourth largest DRAM manufacturer globally, Changxin currently holds about 10% global share, expected to rise to 18% by the end of 2028, approaching Micron's scale. Q1 2026 revenue was 50.8 billion yuan (YoY +719%), net profit attributable to parent was 24.76 billion yuan (YoY +1688%), single-quarter profit has already exceeded the full year of 2025. Nomura believes Changxin should enjoy a "China premium", the 20 times PE valuation is based on the midpoint between Micron's 10 times historical average and the 1 to 3 times valuation gap between Chinese and US semiconductor equipment stocks. Northeast Securities gave a valuation range of 3.2 to 5.7 trillion yuan on the same day, while Nomura's 7.76 trillion yuan is relatively optimistic, the core disagreement lies in the ceiling of Changxin's long-term share.
