Goldman Sachs: IPO Surge Hits Record, Danger Signal Hasn't Flashed Yet

TechFlow news, July 23, according to TechFlow Research, Goldman Sachs' July 20 Top of Mind report pointed out that U.S. IPO proceeds in 2026 have exceeded $125 billion, breaking the full-year record of 2021, and is expected to exceed $200 billion for the full year. However, the number of IPOs is only about 60, far lower than the 400 in 1999 and 250 in 2021 during bubble periods, driven mainly by a few super-large technology companies. Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Snider believes that late-cycle warning signals have not yet appeared, the household sector has become a net buyer, annualized IPO proceeds account for only about 1% of the S&P 500 market capitalization, and the market's absorption capacity is underestimated. University of Florida Professor Ritter pointed out that high issuance volume predicts low returns, but the signal accuracy is only slightly higher than random (about 52%). Acadian Fund Manager Lamont warned that the issuance wave is one of the "Four Horsemen" of bubbles, but it may mark the beginning rather than the end of a bubble, and extreme speculative signals have not yet appeared in current first-day gains.

All three experts believe that IPO volume is moderate, valuations have not reached bubble levels, and first-day gains are not out of control, true danger signals have not yet emerged. Snider expects company buybacks in 2026 to be about $1.3 trillion, enough to offset new supply. If there is a significant shift in the AI narrative or corporate earnings, the market and IPO outlook will change accordingly.