TechFlow reports, on July 20, HSBC economists stated in a report that global trade growth may slow if AI-related demand weakens. They pointed out that global trade remains closely tied to the AI cycle; in nominal value terms, related goods drove 80% of global export growth. These goods account for about 80% of Taiwan's total exports and 27% of total US imports.
They noted that export performance excluding technology products was relatively weak, with export growth in other categories basically stagnating since 2024. Additionally, AI is also supporting service trade growth. However, they believe that based on capital expenditure forecasts from major global cloud service providers (hyperscalers), even if AI investment growth slows next year, this AI boom is expected to persist for some time. (Jin10)
