Analyst: Bitcoin NUPL 100-Day Moving Average Approaching Zero Axis, May Become Key Indicator for Determining Bottom of Current Cycle

TechFlow News, July 08, according to CryptoQuant analyst thechessONCHAIN, Bitcoin NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is currently at 0.158, its 100-day exponential moving average is 0.215, and the 30-day exponential moving average is 0.155. On June 2, the 30-day moving average crossed below the 100-day moving average, indicating weakening market momentum, but both currently remain above the zero line.

Historically, when NUPL's 100-day moving average fell below the zero line, it corresponded to Bitcoin's cyclical bottoms in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022 respectively; therefore, this indicator is regarded as a relatively significant on-chain cyclical signal.

However, no negative values have appeared in this cycle so far, meaning there may be two scenarios for the market: first, the 100-day moving average may subsequently break below the zero line, continuing the historical pattern; second, this cycle may become the first to complete bottoming without falling below the zero line, reflecting a continuous narrowing of bottom drawdown magnitudes. Analysis suggests that the current cross of the 30-day moving average below the 100-day moving average only indicates weakening momentum and does not directly constitute a price target; whether the 100-day moving average will touch and fall below the zero line in the coming weeks remains a key observation point.