TechFlow News, July 06, according to QCP Capital's latest market report, BTC started strongly in July, consistent with historical seasonal patterns—July's historical average gain is about 7.5%, making it one of BTC's strongest performing months. Last Thursday, the US June non-farm payroll data added only 57,000 jobs, about half of market expectations; the weaker-than-expected data provided short-term support to the market, pushing BTC to rebound from the $58,000 support level.
Meanwhile, implied volatility in the crypto market declined slightly, and near-term put skew narrowed somewhat. Market demand for end-of-July $70,000 call options is significant, reflecting that some funds are positioning for seasonal trends.
However, QCP also highlighted downside risks: some market participants are comparing the current trend to July 2022—at that time, after BTC briefly reclaimed the 200-week moving average, it declined again in August and finally bottomed out in October. Strong demand for end-of-year $58,000 put options also confirms that cautious sentiment still exists in the market. QCP pointed out that if BTC can effectively hold above $64,000 this week, it will further boost market confidence.
