Bernstein: AI Liquid Cooling Market to Triple in 4 Years, Cold Plate Commoditization Risk High

TechFlow news, According to Chaoxiang Research, Bernstein's July 5 report pointed out that cold plates are the only components in liquid cooling systems that contact the chips, and a single GB200 NVL72 cabinet requires 108 units. The cold plate market is estimated at approximately $2-3 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach $6-7 billion in 2030 under the base case, representing a 4-year CAGR of approximately 20-30%. NVIDIA's Rubin architecture has confirmed 100% liquid cooling with no fans. Cold plates are replaced upon failure and do not involve maintenance services, and hardware gross margins face compression. Bernstein believes cold plate designs will converge between 2028 and 2030, posing high commoditization risks, and face potential substitution by silicon-based microchannel etching technology in the longer term. Outperform targets: VRT (target price $416), NVT ($218), ETN ($534), SBGSY ($310), TT ($550), JCI ($176); CARR target price $75, rated Market Perform.