TechFlow news, July 1, CICC's latest research report noted that current gold prices may have already overpriced interest rate hike expectations. Fed rate hikes are still not the baseline scenario. The gold market may have already overpriced interest rate hike expectations, with potential for pullbacks within the year. CICC's macro team believes employment and consumption pressures, along with the growing financing demands of the US AI economy, may make it difficult for the Fed to substantially turn hawkish; monetary policy may be "hawkish in name but dovish in reality". Based on the interest rate expectation model implied by gold prices, calculations show that the current gold price of around $4,000/oz has fully priced in 3-4 rate hikes, higher than the pricing of interest rate hike expectations in the interest rate futures market. Looking ahead, after the decline in oil prices is further reflected in US short-term inflation data, the pricing of interest rate hike expectations in the gold market may be corrected; at that time, there may be opportunities for short-term funds in the futures market to cover positions. (Jin10)
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