TechFlow News, April 30: According to a CoinDesk report, a new study by the nonprofit research organization Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) reveals that profits on the prediction market platform Polymarket are highly concentrated, suggesting potential insider trading issues broader than previously reported internal bets on the Venezuela raid incident. After analyzing 435,000 settled markets—totaling $54.4 billion in trading volume—between January 2021 and mid-March 2026, the study found abnormally high win rates for low-probability bets on markets tied to government decisions, particularly those involving military and defense matters. In political markets, such “long-shot” bets averaged a success rate of approximately 14%, whereas certain military-related contracts achieved success rates exceeding 50%.
For example, ahead of the U.S. airstrike on Iran in June 2025, 19 low-probability bets totaling $164,000 were placed hours before the attack on the “YES” contract—which ultimately paid out. Eight wallets collectively earned roughly $1.8 million, with one wallet alone earning nearly $500,000. ACDC recommends that Polymarket implement mandatory identity verification, introduce conditional payouts for suspicious bets, restrict markets whose outcomes are determined by a small number of individuals, and reduce over-specificity in contract design.
