TechFlow News: On April 13, according to QCP Group, U.S.-Iran negotiations collapsed over the weekend, sending oil prices back above $100 per barrel and triggering a broad market shift toward risk aversion. Bitcoin encountered resistance at $74,000, while Ethereum retreated from $2,330 to $2,180. Trump subsequently threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz to cut off Iranian oil exports; Iran countered with threats targeting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, further expanding risk exposure.
China lies at the heart of this situation due to its substantial imports of Iranian crude oil. Should the blockade be implemented, U.S.-China tensions would rise significantly—a risk not yet fully priced into markets. Nevertheless, the crypto market has demonstrated notable resilience: implied volatility and risk-reversal indicators have both declined to pre-conflict levels, signaling subsiding panic. BlackRock’s IBIT recorded net inflows of $612.1 million over the past week, reflecting continued institutional buying momentum.
Market focus has now shifted from geopolitical headlines to execution details. Trump announced that the blockade will commence at 10 a.m. Eastern Time; however, after multiple delays, policy credibility itself has become a tradable variable.
