TechFlow News, March 24: According to JIN10 Data, Goldman Sachs stated that the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession within the next 12 months has risen to 30%, up 5 percentage points from its previous forecast, due to surging oil and natural gas prices. An energy price shock—compounded by tighter financial conditions resulting from the Middle East conflict and the waning effects of the major tax legislation enacted by President Trump last summer—has prompted Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius to raise his baseline year-end unemployment rate forecast to 4.6%. Goldman Sachs still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September and December. The bank also forecasts that U.S. GDP growth in the second half of this year will fall below trend, with an annualized growth rate projected between 1.25% and 1.75%. Due to ongoing disruptions to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs earlier on Monday raised its oil price forecast for this year. The bank noted that this conflict will push up global inflation and reduce global GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points; however, under the worst-case scenario, the GDP impact could double—or even triple.
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