TechFlow News, March 10: According to JINSHI Data, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) stated in its 2026 macroeconomic outlook report that the greatest risk facing the U.S. economy is “stagflation-like” conditions. A series of recent developments indicate that this assessment is gradually being validated—and further reinforced. On one hand, the U.S.-Iran conflict has driven up oil prices, while inflationary drivers are increasingly shifting toward structural factors, potentially heightening inflation’s stickiness. On the other hand, AI’s substitution effect on white-collar jobs is beginning to emerge, dampening employment growth momentum; meanwhile, private credit risks continue to escalate, and once the sector enters a consolidation phase, financial conditions could tighten, thereby weighing on economic growth. At the policy level, the Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: CICC believes interest rate cuts may be postponed until the second half of the year. Furthermore, the stimulative impact of tax cuts is partially offset by rising tariffs and heightened household savings propensity, resulting in an actual boost likely below expectations. Against this backdrop, U.S. economic growth is expected to slow, risk premiums in capital markets will trend upward, and asset allocation logic may shift from yield-chasing toward greater emphasis on risk mitigation.
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