TechFlow reported on January 19 that, according to Wintermute analysis, the traditional four-year crypto cycle is no longer applicable, and 2025 marks the beginning of a transformation for the crypto market shifting from speculation toward maturity as an asset class.
The report指出指出that ETFs and DATs have evolved into "walled gardens," providing sustained demand for large-cap assets, but making it difficult for capital to flow into the broader market. In 2025, the average altcoin rally lasted only 20 days, significantly shorter than the 60 days in 2024, reflecting an extremely concentrated market.
Wintermute forecasts three potential paths for market expansion in 2026: broadening investment scope of ETFs and DATs (with ETF applications already filed for SOL and XRP); strong price appreciation in Bitcoin or Ethereum generating a wealth effect; and retail investor attention returning to crypto from other sectors such as equities (AI, rare earths, quantum).
The analysis suggests that the 2026 market trajectory will depend on whether these catalysts can significantly expand the breadth of liquidity or if market concentration persists. Understanding capital flows and structural changes will be key to shaping investment strategies in 2026.
