TechFlow news, November 22 — According to Jinshi Data, analyst Neil Irwin said the Federal Reserve is currently deeply divided over whether it should cut interest rates next month, and a possible voting outcome would create an astonishing irony. If the three key leaders—Chair Powell, Vice Chair Jefferson, and New York Fed's Williams—decide to lower rates, they would certainly gain support from the three Trump-appointed governors on the committee. But that would give them only six votes out of twelve voting members. They need a seventh vote to achieve a majority. The four non-New York regional Fed presidents with voting rights at this meeting (Goolsbee, Collins, Musalem, and Schmid) have all expressed reservations about rate cuts. In this situation, Powell could turn to the two Biden-appointed governors for his majority. One is Barr, who now appears deeply concerned about inflation and advocates caution. He is therefore very likely to cast a "dissenting" vote. That leaves only one other governor whom Powell could count on for the seventh vote. This official is highly focused on labor market conditions and has remained tight-lipped about the next policy move. That person, of course, is Cook. The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear the case on January 21 next year regarding whether President Trump can fire her, after Trump has been attempting to remove her since last fall.
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