Goldman Sachs Research Report Analysis: HOOD Crypto Trading Volume Exceeds Consensus by 87%, Interest Rate Curve Lifts Price Target

By Rita

Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month target price for Robinhood (HOOD) from $144 to $145, maintaining a Buy rating. In its preliminary monthly data report released on September 28, 2026, Goldman Sachs noted that HOOD’s September trading data exceeded expectations, with cryptocurrency and event contract trading volumes rising 21% and 37% month-over-month, respectively, outperforming market consensus by 87% and 36%. Equity and options trading volumes saw slight month-over-month declines but still exceeded market consensus by 17% and 43%, respectively.

Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro pointed out that the preliminary September data supports upward revisions to revenue expectations. Goldman Sachs adjusted its net revenue forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 upward by 1%, 4%, and 4%, respectively, while adjusted EPS forecasts changed by -1%, +4%, and +3%. The target price increase reflects valuation multiple adjustments and changes in profit expectations.

Strong Trading in Crypto and Prediction Markets

Crypto trading volume rose 21% month-over-month in September to $21.9 billion, exceeding market consensus by 87% and Goldman Sachs’ prior forecast by 17%. Event contract trading volume increased 37% month-over-month, outperforming market consensus by 36% and Goldman Sachs’ prior estimate by 6%. These two categories were the most surprising elements in September’s data. Adjusted trading volume on the HOOD app reached $13.55 billion in September, also higher than prior expectations.

Equity trading volume fell 2% month-over-month, and options trading volume declined 1%, but both remained above market consensus. Equity volume was 1% ahead of Goldman Sachs’ prior forecast, while options matched it. Year-over-year, equity trading volume grew 38% and options volume increased 32%, indicating that retail trading activity continues to remain elevated compared to the same period last year.

Steeper Interest Rate Curve Boosts Revenue

A steeper interest rate curve served as the second driver behind the upward revision in revenue. Goldman Sachs updated the market forward rate curve, which implies approximately 3.5 additional federal funds rate hikes by the end of 2027 compared to previous models. The steeper curve provides support for HOOD’s net interest income, prompting Goldman Sachs to raise its revenue forecast accordingly.

Goldman Sachs raised its net revenue forecast for 2026 from $5,359.4 million to $5,404.8 million, for 2027 from $6,852 million to $7,104 million, and for 2028 from $7,927.7 million to $8,272.2 million. Adjusted expenses (excluding stock-based compensation) were revised upward by 1%, 4%, and 6%, respectively. Adjusted EPS for 2026 was lowered from $2.53 to $2.51, while 2027 was raised from $3.18 to $3.30 and 2028 from $3.76 to $3.89.

In terms of valuation, Goldman Sachs reduced the P/E multiples for Q5 to Q8 by 1.5x to 40x, reflecting a decline in market multiples. The $145 target price corresponds to a P/E multiple of approximately 44x based on 2027 EPS of $3.30.

Slight Target Price Increase Reflects Profit Upgrade

The target price slightly increased from $144 to $145, offering a 24.5% upside from the current share price of $116.46. Goldman Sachs noted that HOOD’s valuation multiples are higher than those of traditional brokerages, reflecting the high-growth characteristics of its retail trading platform. The sustainability of crypto and event contract trading volumes, changes in the interest rate curve, and the pace of new product launches are key variables for the coming quarters.

The slight upward adjustment of the target price from $144 to $145 primarily reflects upward revisions in profit forecasts being offset by downward adjustments in valuation multiples. Whether the growth in crypto and event contract volumes can sustain itself will determine whether HOOD can maintain valuation multiples above 40x.

Disclaimer

This article is compiled and interpreted by Chaoxiang Research based on a third-party brokerage research report (Goldman Sachs Group, September 28, 2026), combined with publicly available market information. The ratings, target prices, profit forecasts, and related judgments cited in the text represent the views of the brokerage analysts, reflect only their affiliated institution’s stance, do not constitute the views of Chaoxiang Research, and do not amount to any investment advice.

Markets involve risks, and decisions require independent judgment. This article should not be used as a basis for buying or selling any securities.