U.S. Stock Market Trends (September 25): Oracle Falls 3.3% Due to Data Center Power Delays; 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Nears 5.2%

Written by: Chaoxiang Research

The U.S. stock market ended nearly flat on Thursday despite volatile intraday trading. Middle East tensions once again pushed up oil prices, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 5.196%, continuing to hit its highest level since 2007. Major indices plunged during the session but recovered most of their losses near the close after fresh news emerged regarding U.S.-Iran negotiations. Performance within the AI sector diverged: Meta surged 4.5% against the trend as it integrated Muse into its new Charm hardware, while Oracle dropped 3.3% due to potential delays at its large data center caused by power supply constraints. After hours, Anthropic signed another $11.6 billion long-term cloud computing deal, underscoring that AI demand remains robust, while the question of whether power grids and infrastructure can keep pace has become a new focal point.

Three major indices nearly flat, Meta rises 4.5%

The S&P 500 fell 0.02% to 7,704.13 points, the Nasdaq rose 0.01% to 26,939.37 points, and the Dow Jones industrial average declined 0.31% to 51,349.98 points. The VIX index increased 3.23% to 15.67.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed near 12,492.54 points, posting a slight decline. The Magnificent Seven stocks showed mixed performance: Meta rose 4.5%, Alphabet gained 1.34%, Amazon inched up 0.04%; Apple fell 0.33%, Microsoft dropped 0.53%, Nvidia slipped 0.41%, and Tesla declined 0.57%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.67% to 5,724.45 points.

Bond market pressures continued to mount. The yield on the 2-year Treasury rose to 4.92%, while the 10-year yield increased by approximately 8 basis points to 5.196%, marking its highest level since 2007; the 30-year yield climbed to around 5.48%, hitting a record high since 2004.

WTI crude oil rose 2.7% to $94.61 per barrel, while Brent crude gained 3.4% to $106.60 per barrel. Spot gold dipped 0.3% to $4,274.14 per ounce. Bitcoin traded around $84,000, with Ethereum hovering near $2,700.

Oil prices surge another 3%, 10-year Treasury yield nears 5.2%

The two variables weighing down the broad market returned overnight.

Following Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia, Brent crude briefly spiked approximately 5% during intraday trading. Subsequently, market rumors indicated that the U.S. and Iran were discussing a phased de-escalation plan, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices retreated from their highs but ultimately still closed up 3.4%.

U.S. economic data offered no breathing room for the bond market either. Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 last week, remaining at historically low levels; August new home sales increased 6.4% month-over-month, with an annualized rate rising to 684,000 units, the highest since December of last year.

Strong economic resilience, combined with rising oil prices, pushed interest rate futures to price in another rate hike in October. New York Fed President Williams also stated on the day that there is a reasonable possibility of another rate hike this year.

Pressure from long-term bond supply was equally significant. Demand for Thursday's $44 billion auction of 7-year Treasuries was mediocre, and yields on both the 10-year and 30-year bonds continued to climb. For the U.S. equity market, long-end rates exceeding 5% have once again become an unavoidable headwind for heavily valued sectors.

Muse gets dedicated hardware, adding momentum to Meta this week

Meta unveiled its new handheld device, Charm, on Wednesday, sending its shares up 4.5% on Thursday.

Roughly the size of an AirPods case, Charm features a roughly 2-inch touchscreen and standalone 5G connectivity, with its core function being instant access to Muse anytime. The device is slated for shipment during the December holiday shopping season, though pricing has not yet been disclosed.

Since Muse went live, Meta has emerged as one of the strongest themes in tech stocks this week. Previous capital flows had focused on CPUs, memory, and platforms whose gateways risk being overtaken by AI agents; Charm now extends this narrative directly into consumer hardware.

Over the past few years, Meta has consistently bet on smart glasses and next-generation computing terminals. Developing a standalone device specifically for Muse feels more like a test of whether AI agents can operate independently of smartphone apps and serve as direct portals for user interaction with AI.

Oracle drops 3.3% as AI data center faces power bottleneck

Oracle fell 3.3%.

The company issued a force majeure notice to a developer under Blue Owl concerning Project Jupiter, a massive AI data center in New Mexico. The core issue lies in power supply, and the project may fail to secure sufficient electricity according to its original schedule.

Spanning approximately 1,400 acres with a financing package of around $18 billion, Project Jupiter is a key initiative supporting compute infrastructure for both Oracle and OpenAI. The site had previously drawn attention over natural gas pipelines, water resources, and environmental permits.

Financing rounds for AI data centers have grown increasingly large over the past year, but once construction begins, power supply, transmission, cooling systems, and regulatory approvals emerge as real bottlenecks. Compute capacity contracts can be signed quickly, but building infrastructure on a multi-gigawatt scale takes several years.

Oracle emphasized that the overall project timeline remains unchanged, and Blue Owl stated that existing financial commitments are unaffected. The stock's immediate drop was straightforward: investors are now primarily concerned with whether AI infrastructure can be completed on schedule, rather than just the total volume planned.

Anthropic signs another $11.6 billion cloud contract, Akamai surges ~15% after hours

Another major deal arrived after market close.

Anthropic and Akamai entered into a seven-year cloud computing agreement with a committed value of $11.6 billion, primarily allocated to rapidly growing CPU workloads. Should future collaboration expand, an additional $9 billion could be added, bringing the total pipeline to nearly $20 billion.

Simultaneously, Akamai granted Anthropic stock warrants potentially exercisable for shares representing up to approximately 5% of Akamai's outstanding stock, sending shares higher by around 15% in extended trading.

This deal lays bare the contradictions surrounding AI infrastructure even more clearly. Model developers continue to aggressively procure compute capacity, while cloud providers secure multi-year agreements; meanwhile, the power constraints exposed by Oracle's project serve as a reminder to the market that converting paper orders into operational compute capacity still hinges on overcoming energy and infrastructure hurdles.

Today's Key Focus

U.S. August Durable Goods Orders. With Wednesday's PMI data leaning strong and Thursday's employment and housing figures demonstrating resilience, better-than-expected durable goods orders could once again place the 10-year Treasury yield as a primary driver for tech stocks.

Akamai and AI Infrastructure Stocks. Whether Anthropic's $11.6 billion long-term deal will spur cloud computing, CPU, and data center-related equities, and whether Oracle's power bottleneck continues to weigh on AI infrastructure plays, represent the two key narratives worth tracking tonight.