Bernstein Research Report Analysis: July Semiconductor Sales Up 131% Year-On-Year, with Memory Chips Contributing Nearly 70% of the Increase

Author: Rita

In July, global semiconductor sales grew 131% year-over-year and declined 9.5% month-over-month, slightly above the historical average decline of 8.5%. On September 8, Bernstein released a WSTS tracking report pointing out that memory remains the core engine of growth, surging 452% year-over-year. Year-to-date, memory has contributed approximately $355 billion in new revenue, driving an industry-wide 111% increase since the beginning of the year. Excluding memory, sales still recorded a 35% year-over-year increase.

The rise in memory prices accounts for nearly 70% of the industry's 111% increase this year. In the July month-over-month data, most product categories performed better than seasonal norms, but regional performance was sharply divided, with China declining 28% month-over-month while the Americas declined by only 0.4%.

Memory Accounts for Nearly 70% of Incremental Growth; Non-Memory Still Up 35%

Total semiconductor sales in July surged 131% year-over-year, remaining high after June's 144%. Memory continued to dominate growth with a 452% year-over-year increase, contributing approximately $355 billion in new industry revenue through July, which accounts for nearly 70% of the industry's 111% year-to-date increase. Factors related solely to memory pricing supported the majority of the industry's growth.

Excluding memory, industry sales grew 35% year-over-year, and demand for non-memory products remained equally healthy. Based on a three-month rolling figure, industry sales increased by 30.4%, far exceeding the historical average of 5.5%. Among these, memory rolled up 48.3%, while non-memory also reached 10.8%.

Month-Over-Month Performance for All Products Outperforms Seasonal Norms

In July, overall sales declined 9.5% month-over-month, slightly below the historical average of 8.5%. However, the performance of each product category generally exceeded seasonal norms.

Discrete devices declined 5.9% month-over-month, outperforming the seasonal average decline of 10.2%. Standard analog linear circuits grew 8.6% month-over-month, surpassing the 2.7%. Logic devices increased 2.2% month-over-month, better than the 0.9% seasonal decline. MCUs fell 1.5%, outperforming the 9.1% seasonal drop. DSPs grew 6.8%, beating the 5.1% seasonal decline. DRAMs dropped 17.5%, better than the 25.7% seasonal fall. NANDs decreased 14.7%, performing better than the 28.8% seasonal drop.

MPUs declined 8.2% month-over-month, falling short of the 5.7% seasonal average, making them one of the few categories underperforming relative to historical trends. Optoelectronics, sensors, and analog application-specific products were roughly in line with historical averages.

Regional Performance Diverges, China Drops 28% Month-Over-Month

Year-over-year, total sales across all regions recorded growth. The Americas grew 172.6% YoY, Europe 89.8%, Japan 58.4%, China 97.5%, and the rest of APAC 140.3%.

Looking month-over-month, regional performance was sharply divided. The Americas dipped by only 0.4%, Japan grew 1.6%, Europe fell 4.4%, the rest of APAC declined 4.7%, and China dropped 28.0%. Excluding memory, month-over-month changes across regions were: Americas +13.3%, Europe -5.9%, Japan +0.2%, China -5.9%, and the rest of APAC -0.9%. China's significant plunge was primarily driven by fluctuations in memory prices.

Shipments Flat, ASP Supported by Memory Prices

Overall shipments in July were essentially flat month-over-month (-0.3%), while the average selling price (ASP) declined 9.3% month-over-month. Year-over-year, shipments grew 16.3% and the ASP rose 98.8%, with memory prices remaining the primary driver behind the substantial YoY increase in ASP.

Shipments varied by category. Discretes, optoelectronics, and DSP saw month-over-month shipment increases, while sensors, standard analog linear, logic, MPU, MCU, DRAM, and NAND shipments declined. Calculated over a three-month rolling period, total shipments grew 10.2%, with all categories showing positive growth.

Memory ASPs rose noticeably month-over-month, with DRAM pricing per bit increasing 6.5% and NAND rising 9.5%. This contrasts with data showing memory shipments fell more than 20% month-over-month, indicating that pricing factors for memory continue to drive industry growth.

Automotive and Computer End Markets Outperform Seasonal Norms

ASIC sales grew 0.5% month-over-month, outperforming the historical average decline of 2.5%. In end markets, computers and peripherals rose 2.8% month-over-month, beating the seasonal 3.0% drop; automotive declined 0.5%, better than the 5.3% seasonal fall; multifunction and other applications fell 3.6%, surpassing the 5.6% seasonal decline.

Consumer electronics declined 8.2%, underperforming the seasonal 6.0% drop; wireless communications fell 6.1%, worse than the 0.1% seasonal decline; wired communications grew 1.2%, missing the seasonal 3.9% gain. The resilience of automotive and industrial sectors, along with the computer segment's above-expectation performance, reflects the structural support provided by AI-related demand to the semiconductor end markets.

Data from Bernstein shows that the semiconductor industry exhibited price-driven, structurally divergent characteristics in July. Rising memory prices remain the core driver of total growth, while healthy expansion in non-memory areas indicates that industry fundamentals are not overly concentrated in a single category. Amid regional divergence, the Chinese market experienced a sharp month-over-month slide, but given the unique impact of memory price volatility, this phenomenon alone is insufficient to alter the industry's overall positive outlook.

Disclaimer

This article is compiled and interpreted by Chaoxiang Research based on third-party brokerage research reports (Bernstein, September 8, 2026), combined with public market information. The ratings, target prices, earnings forecasts, and related judgments cited herein reflect the views of the brokerage's analysts, representing only their institution's stance, not those of Chaoxiang Research, and do not constitute any investment advice.

Markets carry risks, and decisions must be independent. This article should not serve as the basis for buying or selling any securities.