Bitget UEX Daily | Trump Claims US Military 100% Controls Strait of Hormuz; Oil Prices Surge, Inflation Concerns Intensify; US Stocks Slip Slightly, Tech Under Pressure

I. Hot News

Fed Dynamics

Market Focuses on Inflation Data This Week, Rate Hike Expectations Still Affected by Employment and Oil Prices

• After July non-farm payrolls data was significantly weaker than expected, the market has significantly lowered near-term rate hike probability.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released this week, becoming key for next policy pricing.
• Oil prices surged due to Hormuz stalemate, may push up inflation expectations again.

Market Impact: Employment weakness and oil price rise form a contest, short-term Fed path remains uncertain, market sensitivity to data increases.

International Commodities

Trump Says US Military 100% Controls Strait of Hormuz, Oil Prices Rise Significantly

• Trump stated that the only one controlling the Strait of Hormuz currently is the US Navy, the blockade is "impeccable", like a "steel wall", minesweeping has been done on the entire strait, the strait is open to non-Iranian ships, but entry into Iranian ports is not allowed.
• Trump also demanded Iran compensate for casualties and losses caused by related conflicts, adding new variables to negotiations for reopening the strait.
• Iran reiterated reopening conditions, and stated that the agreement with Oman on a new route is near completion.

Market Impact: Uncertainty on actual strait navigation continues, oil prices rebounded sharply, pushing up inflation and geopolitical risk premium again, short-term energy market volatility intensifies.

US Stock Macro

US Stocks Pull Back Monday, Tech and Energy Sectors Diverge

• Affected by inflation concerns triggered by oil price rise, the three major US indices closed slightly lower.
• Intel announced possible sale of $15 billion stock to support AI and manufacturing business, stock price under pressure.
• Berkshire and other stocks with better-than-expected performance performed relatively stable.

Market Impact: Geopolitics and inflation expectations dominate sentiment, funds rotate between energy and tech, market remains cautious overall.

II. Market Review

Commodities & FX Performance

• Spot Gold: ~4,414 USD/oz, +0.6%
• Spot Silver: ~65 USD/oz, +0.2%
• WTI Crude Oil: ~82.2 USD/bbl, +0.07%
• Brent Crude Oil: ~83.98 USD/bbl, 0.12%
• US Dollar Index (DXY): ~99.75, -0.06%

Driver Analysis: Trump claims US military has 100% control over Strait of Hormuz and maintains blockade, coupled with differences between both sides on compensation issues, strait reopening prospect remains unclear, pushing crude oil up significantly. Gold 博弈 (games) between strong dollar and safe-haven demand, performance relatively restrained. Asset correlation logic reflects: Geopolitical stalemate → Oil price up → Inflation expectations rise → Dollar supported, meanwhile risk assets face pressure. Short-term commodity volatility will highly depend on actual strait navigation progress and this week's inflation data.

Crypto Performance

• BTC: ~64,037 USD, -1.55%
• ETH: ~1,874 USD, 2.12%
• Total Crypto Market Cap: ~2.27 Trillion USD, -0.4%
• Market Liquidation Status: 24h Total Liquidation 205 Million USD, Short Liquidation 59.25 Million USD
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: BTC current price ~63,950 USD, below 63,300–63,700 USD dense long liquidation, breaking 63,500 USD may trigger continuous long liquidation. Above 64,300–65,000 USD short liquidation pressure obvious, if breaking 64,400 USD, may further trigger short squeeze, short-term volatility risk high.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC Spot ETF 24h Dynamic Net Outflow 91 Million USD

Driver Analysis: Oil price surge and geopolitical uncertainty heating up, risk appetite converging, crypto market maintains high-level oscillation. BTC holds above 64,500, ETH elasticity limited. ETF fund flow continues net inflow providing support, leverage liquidation scale controllable. Macro level employment weakness and oil price rise form hedge, short-term crypto may continue range consolidation, focus on this week's inflation data impact on liquidity expectations.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Close ~53,976 points (-0.1%), slight pullback
• S&P 500: Close ~7,753 points (-0.1%), retreat from record high
• Nasdaq: Close ~26,605 points (-0.3%), Tech under pressure

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVDA: ~217.55 USD (-2.86%)
• AAPL: ~308.26 USD (-1.62%)
• MSFT: ~506.06 USD (+1.21%)
• GOOGL: ~357.52 USD (+0.91%)
• AMZN: ~278.09 USD (+1.32%)
• META: ~594.92 USD (+0.48%)
• TSLA: ~330.88 USD (+0.70%)

Performance Summary & Driver Analysis: Monday US stocks slight pullback, Nasdaq decline relatively larger. Nvidia and Apple clearly under pressure, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta and Tesla recorded gains, tech internal continues to diverge. Oil price surge triggers inflation concerns, partially offsets rate cut expectations from previous weak employment data. Market weighs between geopolitical risk and macro data, funds prefer cloud and software targets with higher performance certainty.

Sector Movement Observation

Energy

• Representative Stocks: Related crude oil and energy stocks generally strong, some targets top gainers
• Drivers: Trump claims US military has "100% control" over Strait of Hormuz and maintains blockade, coupled with differences between both sides on compensation issues, strait actual navigation prospect remains unclear. Market re-prices geopolitical risk premium, oil price surges, directly pushes energy sector performance. Short-term still highly dependent on negotiation progress and actual navigation recovery.

Semiconductor

• Representative Stocks: Nvidia (-2.86%), related chip stocks generally pull back
• Drivers: Oil price due to Hormuz stalemate significantly up, market worries inflation expectations heat up again, affecting subsequent liquidity and Fed policy path. Previous non-farm data weaker than expected brought sentiment repair, but macro narrative switched quickly, high valuation AI hardware first encountered profit-taking and position adjustment, sector overall under pressure.

Tech Software/Cloud

• Representative Stocks: Microsoft (+1.21%), Amazon (+1.32%) relatively resistant to decline
• Drivers: In environment of geopolitical and inflation uncertainty heating up, funds prefer targets with realized revenue, clear commercialization path. Azure and AWS continuous high growth, makes cloud business giants show relative defensive attributes, forming obvious divergence with high volatility, high valuation hardware sector.

III. US Stock Individual Stock Deep Interpretation

1. Nvidia (NVDA) - Fall Nearly 3%, Semiconductor Under Pressure

Event Overview: Nvidia stock price fell about 2.86% to 217.55 USD, one of the weaker performers among large tech stocks. Market worries Hormuz stalemate pushes oil price, inflation expectations may heat up again, affecting subsequent liquidity and Fed policy path.

Market Interpretation: Previous non-farm data weaker than expected pushed risk appetite rebound, AI hardware sentiment repaired. However oil price surge quickly changed macro narrative, funds start to re-evaluate rate path and valuation pressure. Nvidia as high valuation, high elasticity compute leader, often under pressure first when inflation concerns heat up. Long-term AI compute demand logic unchanged, but short-term stock price highly sensitive to macro liquidity and rate expectations, profit-taking and position adjustment act together.

Investment Inspiration: Focus on this week's CPI and PPI data impact on inflation expectations, and whether large customer capex guidance can continue to support demand narrative. Volatility may intensify around data release.

2. Apple (AAPL) - Fall Over 1.6%, Relatively Lagging

Event Overview: Apple stock price fell about 1.62% to 308.26 USD, performance weaker than most tech giants, continuing recent relatively lagging trend.

Market Interpretation: In stage where risk appetite converges, funds prefer cloud and software targets, consumer electronics and hardware company elasticity usually limited. Apple although has robust cash flow and service business moat, but market short-term more focuses on its hardware demand marginal changes and AI function landing on replacement cycle actual pull. Compared to companies with realized cloud revenue growth, Apple receives relatively insufficient fund favor in current macro environment.

Investment Inspiration: Need to continuously observe subsequent product cycle, service business growth sustainability, and Apple Intelligence etc. AI function impact on user upgrade willingness.

3. Microsoft (MSFT) - Rise Over 1%, Relatively Resistant

Event Overview: Microsoft stock price rose about 1.21% to 506.06 USD, performance stable in tech sector overall pullback, one of the relatively resistant large tech stocks.

Market Interpretation: Microsoft relies on Azure cloud business continuous better-than-expected growth and AI commercialization actual landing, seen by funds as target with higher certainty in current tech sector. In environment where oil price rise triggers inflation concerns, risk appetite declines, cloud and software giants with clear revenue realization path often obtain relative premium. This forms sharp contrast with hardware sector under pressure due to valuation and macro sensitivity.

Investment Inspiration: Performance realization ability is still current market pricing core standard. Subsequently need to focus on whether cloud business growth speed can continue to digest capex, and AI related revenue contribution visibility.

4. Amazon (AMZN) - Rise Over 1.3%, Following Cloud Logic

Event Overview: Amazon stock price rose about 1.32% to 278.09 USD, performance obviously stronger than hardware sector, continuing cloud business driven relative strength.

Market Interpretation: AWS high growth and AI infrastructure investment long-term logic continue to support stock price. In background of geopolitical and inflation uncertainty heating up, funds prefer realized revenue, clear commercialization path targets. Amazon therefore shows strong defensive growth attributes, forming divergence with high volatility, high valuation hardware stocks.

Investment Inspiration: Focus on whether AWS growth speed can continue to digest capex, and retail and advertising business resilience in macro volatility. Cloud and AI commercialization matching degree is still mid-to-long term pricing core.

5. Tesla (TSLA) - Slight Close Higher

Event Overview: Tesla stock price rose about 0.70% to 330.88 USD, performance relatively stable, no large volatility appeared.

Market Interpretation: Tesla combines EV, autonomous driving and humanoid robot multiple narratives, high beta attribute makes it outstanding elasticity when risk appetite quickly rebounds, but when risk appetite declines or macro uncertainty heats up, gain often limited. Current market remains cautious in oil price rise and inflation concerns, Tesla although not significantly pull back, but also failed to continue previous strength. Long-term narrative still exists, but short-term pricing more affected by sentiment and macro liquidity.

Investment Inspiration: Stock price volatility high, need to continuously track actual delivery data, autonomous driving progress and Optimus commercialization landing rhythm, to verify long-term narrative realization progress.

IV. Market & Project Dynamics

1. US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will hold public meeting on August 14 at 10:00 AM (ET), deliberate whether to release new rule proposal, create customized issuance system for specific investment contracts involving crypto assets.

2. A whale transferred 1275 BTC (81.5 Million USD): 500 BTC (32 Million USD) to FalconX, 274 BTC (17.5 Million USD) to Cumberland OTC trading platform, 500 BTC (32 Million USD) to new address (possibly subsequently to Galaxy Digital).

3. Contract Whale "First Set 10 Big Targets" (@jasonleo) posted, mid-to-long term trend judgment unchanged, still believes current area is 阶段性 bottom. Without extreme structural collapse, his judgment on this round BTC bottom area still around 58,000 USD. He said, near 64,000 USD cost nearby reduce two-thirds position, not changing direction, but actively controlling position risk, reserving space for extreme situations. If subsequent trend matches expectations, will find opportunity to buy back previously reduced positions sequentially.

4. Strategy CEO Phong Le said, company has adjusted strategy, currently holds 4.75 Billion USD Cash, can cover about 2.7 years preferred stock dividends. Le said, he initially thought investors would highly value it due to Bitcoin liquidity and long-term appreciation, but institutional investors value cash more, company therefore adjusted strategy. Le positions Strategy as financial platform built around Bitcoin, not just leveraged Bitcoin proxy, goal is to become "JPMorgan in Digital Finance", and envisioned ecosystem similar to Apple iPhone—other companies can develop financial products on Strategy product basis. Le said DeFi can expand this ecosystem, eventually bringing more capital into Bitcoin. Company currently holds about 840,000 BTC (about 4% of final supply), Le said "We are now the weathervane, Bitcoin's Central Bank".

5. Bitwise Research Head Ryan Rasmussen said, as stablecoin market expands to trillions USD scale, Circle value underestimated by market. Rasmussen expects stablecoin market to grow from about 300 Billion USD to 3 to 5 Trillion USD, Circle in US stablecoin regulation forming process by virtue of existing market share occupies first-mover advantage. He thinks Circle will not only become stablecoin giant, but also payment giant—its payment infrastructure under construction will play key role in stablecoin-driven financial system, but investors still too focused on its reserve business.

6. BlackRock Digital Asset Head Robert Mitchnick said, near one month Bitcoin market sentiment appeared obvious but subtle improvement, Bitcoin and US stock correlation weakening, this is healthy for Bitcoin as portfolio diversification tool and tail risk hedge argument. He pointed out, July AI sector large pullback when Bitcoin performance significantly outperformed, exactly this decoupling embodiment. Although Bitcoin year-to-date fell nearly 30%, compared to one year ago fell about 50%, but ETF investors continue to buy—last week US Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded 853.5 Million USD inflow, best weekly performance since mid-April, among them BlackRock IBIT contributed 693.7 Million USD (over 80%), Fidelity FBTC contributed 116.4 Million USD. Bloomberg Analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out, after Coldcard vulnerability exposed multiple funds recorded daily net inflow, "Hard not to see as cause-effect relationship".

7. Insiders revealed, OpenAI completed an employee share sale transaction, scale about 7 Billion USD, at this time company is considering listing on Wall Street. Two insiders said, in this employee share buyback, this ChatGPT developer did not introduce external investors, but self-bought current and former employee held shares. They said, this transaction valued OpenAI at 852 Billion USD, flat with recent financing round valuation. Large unlisted AI companies will regularly allow insiders to sell part of holdings cash out. In past, OpenAI once introduced Thrive Capital and SoftBank Group etc. investors, buy stocks from employees.

V. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

August 11 (Tuesday)

US ADP Employment Change Week of July 25, July Existing Home Sales; ★★★★Super Micro Computer (SMCI), CoreWeave, Lumentum after-hours release earnings, core verify AI server order conversion, data center production/power/financing cost, 800G/1.6T optical module and data center optical communication demand; Sea, Tencent Music pre-market; CAVA after-hours.

August 12 (Wednesday)

★★★★★US releases July CPI (Market expects overall YoY about 3.4%, previous 3.5%; Core YoY about 2.5%, previous 2.6%; MoM overall about 0.1%, Core about 0.2%), taking over last week non-farm becomes this week most important macro data, directly related to Sept Fed rate hike pricing (current implied probability about 44%); Tencent Holdings releases earnings (Game, Advertising, FinTech and AI capex/Hunyuan progress as focus); ★★★★Coherent, Cisco, Nebius after-hours (and part pre-market) earnings, test AI network equipment and high-speed optical communication demand; API/EIA Crude Oil Inventories, IEA/OPEC Monthly Reports dense release.

August 13 (Thursday)

US releases July PPI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims; ★★★★★SanDisk Investor Day (Beijing Time evening), focus on NAND supply/demand, capex, High Bandwidth Memory (HBF) roadmap and long-term margin target, set tone for storage sector; Google Made by Google Event (Pixel 11 series and wearables, Gemini deep integration); Fed Officials Hammack, Barkin speak; ★★★★Applied Materials (AMAT) after-hours earnings, focus on wafer manufacturing, DRAM, advanced packaging and semiconductor equipment expenditure guidance; JD.com, SMIC, Hua Hong etc. China concept/Semiconductor earnings sync.

August 14 (Friday)

★★★★US releases July Retail Sales MoM, August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary and 1-year inflation expectation, test consumption resilience after employment cooling; US Institution Q2 13F Filings disclosure deadline, observe large fund in tech, energy etc. sector allocation changes.

*This week US stock core theme revolves around July inflation data "final exam" (CPI takes over non-farm, PPI and Retail Sales continuous verify cost and consumption), Fed official signals and Sept policy path, and AI infrastructure chain (CoreWeave, Lumentum, SMCI, Coherent, Cisco, Applied Materials) and Storage (SanDisk Investor Day) earnings/event dense verification

Note: Last week non-farm unexpectedly reduced 23,000 after rate hike expectations cooled, if CPI/Core continue fall and consumption maintains resilience, soft landing trade and growth stocks hope to continue; otherwise may re-raise tight pricing and test high valuation sectors. Expected market volatility intensifies, focus on data and AI guidance better or worse than expected pricing reaction.

Institutional Views:

Analysts generally believe, Trump claims US military 100% controls Strait of Hormuz and maintains blockade, makes Strait reopening prospect still unclear, oil price surge pushes inflation concerns again. Previous weak employment data brought rate cut expectations partially offset. US stocks slight pullback, tech internal continues to diverge, cloud and software relatively resistant, hardware under pressure. Crypto market maintains high-level oscillation, ETF inflow provides support. Overall consensus is geopolitics and inflation data will become short-term main line, market volatility may increase.

Disclaimer: Above content AI search organized, artificial only verification release, not as any investment advice. Text data inevitably exists deviation, please take market instant data as standard.