Citrini Research: Top 5 Investment Themes Overshadowed by AI Trading
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Citrini Research: Top 5 Investment Themes Overshadowed by AI Trading
Alpha hides in niche, low-popularity topics.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Citrini Research
Compiled and translated by TechFlow
TechFlow Intro: While analysts across the market tally shortages of HBM and specialized Taiwanese glass for data centers, the truly scarce resource is “attention” itself. Three years of AI-driven narratives have led to excessive capital concentration—but the rest of the world keeps turning: the life sciences cycle has bottomed out; senior housing is at capacity; stadiums are selling out. These overlooked sectors are quietly repairing their fundamentals… For investors, the largest source of alpha today may lie not in AGI timelines—but in “small themes” that no one is modeling.
Note: The following summarizes the core content of Citrini Research’s latest report. The original is a paid publication; this article synthesizes its public summary and multiple external sources.
The Attention Tax
Did you know? Compute power, electricity, HBM, NAND, concrete and transformers used to build data centers, that special Taiwanese glass, and even the “alphabet soup” optical-to-digital conversion technologies—all are in short supply.
Yes, you know it well. But there’s an even scarcer input factor amid AI-driven shortages: attention.
Every marginal hour of analyst brainpower—or analyst “token budget”—is pulled toward a single trade. We’ve felt it firsthand: over the past three years, most of our time has been spent tracking (and occasionally shaping) that narrative.
But myopia has a cost—and we believe it’s time to broaden our field of view.
The AI trade—right or wrong—is already overcrowded. We see high risk of “AI fatigue,” likely triggering some degree of capital rotation into assets people appear to have stopped caring about.
The mechanism we care about is simple: capital floods into one theme, while peripheral names get underweighted—making them inherently interesting. These names also suffer from insufficient modeling and neglect.
We’ve noted this before when discussing the life sciences cycle—which, in our view, has already hit bottom. Five years ago, we’d see these stocks rebound from lows early, anticipating the upcycle. Today, they remain mired near their 52-week lows—not because investors want to avoid risk during inventory-reduction recoveries, but because “DRAM is the bottleneck.”
The world keeps turning. The gap between forgotten expectations and evolving reality has long been where thematic investing generates returns. Attention is a finite resource—but in ordinary momentum reversals, it shifts rapidly. Sometimes, when it does, it brings new focal points into investor consciousness—even if momentum swings back upward.
We’re revisiting our “small themes”—trends and catalyst-driven trades that aren’t decade-long market-disruption stories. Instead, they’re low-radar, compelling narratives in less crowded sectors—capable of delivering surprises. Five themes—none requiring an opinion on AGI timelines or tokenomics: baby boomers moving into senior living facilities; sold-out stadium tickets; a 20-year exchange monopoly facing real competition for the first time; fintech’s recovery; and airline stocks—our two favorite names punished for 18 months for reasons entirely unrelated to profitability.
Our macro view is that markets will continue rising—but with increasingly frequent 10–15% sharp corrections, driven more by positioning than fundamentals.This means we should hold semiconductor names—but shouldn’t let them be the only thing on our map. Over the past month, we’ve been gradually reducing AI exposure, as everyone online dons the “bottleneck investor” hat—and we grow increasingly intrigued by what AI’s “Dutch disease” has left behind.
Theme One: Airlines—Punished for 18 Months for Reasons Unrelated to Profitability
Citrini remains bullish on Delta and United—a stance held for over two years. In November 2024, they published an analysis of aviation’s “structural reset,” identifying these two major carriers as winners.
Two years later, Citrini still sees upside. The report notes that the 18-month decline in both stocks was almost entirely driven by macro factors—first tariff-induced inflation fears, then Iran-war-driven oil price spikes—having nothing to do with airlines’ underlying profitability.
According to Business Insider, Citrini believes that as the economy moves past tariff-driven inflation and oil shocks, growth prospects for both companies remain strong. A key trend highlighted in the report: the K-shaped economy is deepening divergence—and major carriers aren’t resisting it; they’re actively embracing it—shifting toward premiumization and raising revenue per passenger.
Additionally, the 2026 World Cup serves as a near-term catalyst: global event-driven cross-border travel demand will directly benefit airline stocks.
Theme Two: Senior Housing—80+ Population to Grow 56% in Ten Years, Supply Far Behind
Citrini’s second theme targets a less glamorous—but highly certain—sector: senior housing.
The core data is solid: the U.S. population aged 80+ is projected to grow over 56% in the next decade—far exceeding overall population growth (~5%). Just in 2026 alone, over one million new households aged 80+ will emerge; by 2029, that number will double to two million.
Supply of facilities lags far behind. Citrini notes that this sector has been overlooked largely because it lacks glamour—in the face of AI and semiconductors, it simply doesn’t attract attention. Yet baby boomers are collectively entering advanced age—a purely demographic-driven trend requiring no policy assumptions or technological breakthroughs.
Per Business Insider, Citrini highlights three names: senior housing REITs Welltower and Janus Living, and senior living operator Brookdale Senior Living.
Theme Three: Live Entertainment—the Best-Performing Asset Class of the Past Decade, Outperforming Tech Stocks
Citrini dubs live entertainment the best-performing asset class of the past decade—even outperforming tech stocks.
The report’s central thesis: “Being there” itself is becoming a luxury. Consumers willingly pay steep premiums for in-person experiences—sports franchises, concerts, combat sports, and even movie theaters—all benefiting from this desire for authentic presence. Citrini writes: “Sports franchises—and, more broadly, all offline events—are benefiting from people’s desire to ‘be there.’ This unlocks greater monetization opportunities through attendance, premiumization, and promotion.”
Business Insider reports Citrini specifically named three companies:
TKO Group—the parent company of WWE and UFC—highlighted for its strong financial growth and high-value partnerships. Cinemark reflects the trend of consumers returning to theaters. IMAX represents the upgrade path for cinematic experience—audiences no longer just want to watch movies, but seek immersive experiences. IMAX’s stock recently hit an all-time high.
Theme Four: Exchange Monopoly Disruption—CME’s 20-Year Reign Faces Its First Real Challenger
The most institutionally oriented theme in Citrini’s report addresses the fracturing landscape of U.S. futures exchanges.
CME Group holds ~98% market share in U.S. interest rate derivatives—a near-total monopoly sustained for over two decades. But FMX Futures Exchange is changing that.
FMX—spun out of BGC Group (founded by current U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick)—received CFTC approval in January 2024 and is scheduled to launch trading in the second half of 2025. Its shareholder roster reads like a Wall Street all-star list: Bank of America, Barclays, Citadel Securities, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Jump Trading, Morgan Stanley, Tower Research Capital, and Wells Fargo—all holding minority stakes, valuing FMX at ~$667 million.
FMX’s competitive strategy is three-pronged: lower trading fees, margin savings via partnership with LCH, and liquidity-provider incentive programs. In February 2025, FMX set a single-day volume record of 9,500 contracts.
CME isn’t without vulnerabilities. Just last week (June 22), CME Direct suffered a four-hour outage—the latest in a string of infrastructure disruptions. FMX has publicly stated that CME’s near-monopoly makes such incidents systemic risks—and that the market needs a reliable alternative exchange to ensure resilience.
Of course, disruptors face steep odds. During April 2025’s tariff volatility, FMX volume plunged over two-thirds, as traders instinctively fled to CME’s deeper liquidity amid heightened volatility. But as markets normalized, FMX volume has gradually recovered. Bank of America estimates CME earns ~$2 billion annually from Treasury-related business alone—a profit pool large enough to justify challengers’ long-term investment.
Theme Five: Fintech Recovery—The Most Beaten-Down Sector of 2026 Is Rebounding
Citrini’s fifth theme is fintech.
Fintech stocks were among the worst performers of 2026. As of end-May, SoFi was down ~35% year-to-date; Robinhood and Upstart each fell ~25%. Yet clear signs of rebound emerged in late May.
SoFi’s catalyst was the launch of SoFiUSD, its proprietary stablecoin—making it the first U.S.-licensed bank to issue its own stablecoin. On the announcement day, shares jumped 12% intraday. Fundamentally, SoFi’s Q1 2026 revenue reached $1.1 billion; loan originations hit a record $12.2 billion—up 68% YoY—and membership reached 14.7 million. CEO Anthony Noto framed this as “a strategic entry into digital assets,” and SoFi is now partnering with Mastercard to develop global payment settlement capabilities.
Robinhood completed a full U-shaped recovery after its 2022–2023 trough: full-year 2025 revenue rose 45% YoY, and net income doubled. Acquiring crypto exchange Bitstamp, launching the Gold credit card, and growing Gold subscription users to 4.3 million are all driving its evolution from “trading app” to “financial super-app.”
Upstart appointed co-founder Paul Gu as CEO in May, and its AI-powered lending platform narrative regained market attention around the same time.
Citrini’s logic is straightforward: while everyone watches semiconductors and data centers, fintech has been neglected to extreme valuation levels. Yet fundamentals haven’t deteriorated—in fact, they’re improving. Once attention shifts even slightly, upside potential is substantial.
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