HTX Research’s Latest Report Analysis: How the Hormuz Shock Is Rewriting the Pricing Logic of Crypto Markets
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HTX Research’s Latest Report Analysis: How the Hormuz Shock Is Rewriting the Pricing Logic of Crypto Markets
Until macroeconomic pressures ease, the crypto market will continue to be characterized by “high volatility, structural focus, and low beta.”
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights
Recently, HTX Research—the research arm of HTX (formerly Huobi)—released its latest report titled “The Hormuz Shock, U.S. Midterm Elections, and the Repricing of the Crypto Market”. The report analyzes President Trump’s April 2 national address on Iran and the resulting cross-asset market dislocations, mapping out the full transmission path through which energy supply shocks impact crypto markets. It further integrates analysis of the U.S. midterm elections and the evolving legislative battle over crypto regulation to deliver a tiered scenario assessment.
HTX Research argues that the macro trading framework has shifted—from “risk appetite recovery driven by easing expectations”—to a constrictive environment shaped by the confluence of geopolitical energy shocks, higher-for-longer interest rates, and rising policy uncertainty. As a result, the crypto market’s near-term narrative has pivoted toward defense, stratification, and repricing. This conclusion directly aligns with HTX’s recently published 2026 Digital Asset Trends White Paper, which states that digital asset volatility in 2026 is “increasingly driven by changes in funding costs, the yield curve, and the U.S. Dollar Index.” This report traces how such transmission unfolds in real time across various crypto assets—within just 72 hours—starting from a specific geopolitical shock.
A Set of Market Data That Challenges Conventional Wisdom
The cross-asset reaction following Trump’s speech serves as a critical entry point for understanding the current environment. Brent crude surged over 7% in a single day, briefly climbing above $108 per barrel; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to approximately 4.37%; and Bitcoin retreated into the $66,000–$67,000 range. At first glance, this appears to be a textbook war-risk避险 (safe-haven) rally. Yet gold and silver both fell simultaneously—a stark deviation from the conventional wisdom that war or geopolitical tension invariably boosts precious metals. The concurrent weakness in both precious metals and BTC signals that the underlying market logic lies elsewhere.
The true transmission chain is as follows: surging oil prices → upward revision of inflation expectations → further compression of Fed rate-cutting space → stronger U.S. dollar and real yields → forced contraction of global risk budgets. This is a liquidity-contracting shock—not the classic safe-haven flow where capital rotates from risk assets into safe assets. For crypto investors, this distinction is crucial: under classic safe-haven conditions, BTC can credibly pitch itself as “digital gold,” but amid broad-based liquidity contraction, virtually all assets dependent on marginal inflows come under pressure in the first phase. HTX’s 2026 Digital Asset Trends White Paper had previously issued a highly consistent forecast in its systemic risk chapter: during the early phase of extreme geopolitical conflict, BTC’s liquidity remains constrained by macro-level liquidation pressures—and thus exhibits high correlation with traditional risk assets. The market action on April 2 validated nearly every element of that forecast.
Why the Hormuz Shock Transmits to Crypto Markets
The Strait of Hormuz is the central pricing anchor in this episode. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), roughly 15 million barrels per day of crude oil passed through the strait in 2025—accounting for over one-third of global oil trade, with China and India together receiving about 44%. Should navigation become restricted, the most direct cost pressure would fall on Asian importers and manufacturing economies reliant on imported energy—not on the U.S. domestic economy. In his speech, Trump emphasized that the U.S. does not depend on Middle Eastern oil—further reinforcing market expectations that “the U.S. is relatively insulated, while Europe and Asia bear the brunt of the shock.”
This dynamic produces an apparently paradoxical outcome: a U.S.-initiated geopolitical escalation actually strengthens the U.S. dollar. To global capital, the U.S. possesses three distinct advantages—domestic energy expansion capacity, dollar settlement dominance, and a more robust financing infrastructure—against a backdrop where Europe lacks a unified energy moat and Asia remains heavily dependent on Hormuz. Capital therefore flows naturally back to the U.S. A stronger dollar, in turn, further suppresses liquidity in non-U.S. dollar regions: European and Asian institutions, grappling with currency depreciation and rising energy costs, inevitably shrink their risk budgets for allocating to high-volatility assets.
The endpoint of this chain is unmistakable in crypto markets: when global risk budgets contract, capital withdraws first from the outermost layer of risk assets. BTC—owing to its deepest liquidity and highest institutional ownership—retains relative resilience; most altcoins sit at the outermost fringe of global dollar liquidity and are most dependent on marginal inflows, making them the first to weaken in this round. This is the fundamental driver behind the pronounced divergence in performance across crypto assets during this shock.
Stablecoins and RWAs: Value Reinforced Amidst the Shock
Not all crypto sectors are equally pressured. As global macro uncertainty rises, energy costs climb, and friction in traditional cross-border payments intensifies, the settlement efficiency and programmability of USD-pegged stablecoins become comparatively more attractive. Particularly in Asia and emerging markets facing dual pressures of local currency depreciation and rising energy prices, demand for USD stablecoins—as both a store of value and a settlement instrument—may rise rather than fall. They offer a low-friction channel to access USD exposure, bypassing the traditional banking system entirely.
The rationale for Real World Assets (RWAs) is analogous. When risk appetite contracts and markets pivot away from pure narrative-driven assets, on-chain assets backed by genuine yield exhibit defensive characteristics. U.S. Treasury RWAs deliver risk-free yield accessible on-chain; private credit and corporate bond RWAs offer fixed-income returns superior to traditional channels—making them naturally more appealing in a “low-Beta, high-structure” environment.
The white paper provides broader context for this view: stablecoins have built a “on-chain USD system” exceeding $30 billion, emerging as a new issuance channel for the U.S. dollar; the RWA market has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of ~30% over the past three years—the most stable growth category within the crypto finance ecosystem. The differentiation logic revealed by this shock can be distilled into one sentence: altcoins are fragile because they reside at the outermost edge of liquidity; stablecoins and RWAs demonstrate resilience precisely because they are most deeply embedded in real-world economic demand.
Four High-Frequency Signals That Determine Market Direction
Prior to any easing of macro pressure, “high volatility, structure-heavy, Beta-light” remains the dominant theme for crypto markets. HTX Research identifies four high-frequency indicators worth close monitoring over the next 6–10 weeks. First: oil prices and shipping—key metrics include whether Brent and WTI sustainably retreat below $100/barrel, along with Strait of Hormuz transit data and marine insurance premium trends. Second: interest rates and the U.S. dollar—focus on whether the 10-year Treasury yield and the DXY index peak, and how U.S. gasoline prices transmit to implied inflation expectations. Third: internal crypto metrics—including BTC ETF fund flows, net stablecoin issuance, on-chain activity, perpetual futures funding rates, and altcoin trading volume share. Fourth: policy and elections—track the Senate scheduling of the CLARITY Act, developments around stablecoin yield provisions, and the degree to which crypto issues become politically bundled with inflation and oil-price concerns in key swing districts. If two or more of these four indicator groups begin improving, the crypto market may enter a recovery phase; otherwise, deleveraging and repricing will remain the dominant themes.
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the dedicated research division of HTX, conducting in-depth analysis across a broad spectrum including cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends. It publishes comprehensive reports and delivers expert assessments. HTX Research is committed to delivering data-driven insights and strategic foresight, playing a pivotal role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous methodology and cutting-edge data analytics, HTX Research consistently stands at the forefront of innovation—leading thought leadership and fostering deeper understanding of evolving market dynamics. Visit us.
For inquiries, please contact research@htx-inc.com
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