Bitget UEX Daily Report | Trump Does Not Rule Out Sending Troops to Iran; Iran Closes the Strait of Hormuz, Crude Oil Prices Surge; Drone and Space Stocks Rally
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Bitget UEX Daily Report | Trump Does Not Rule Out Sending Troops to Iran; Iran Closes the Strait of Hormuz, Crude Oil Prices Surge; Drone and Space Stocks Rally
The overall market needs to be cautious about rising inflation delaying expectations of monetary easing.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Bitget
I. Key News Highlights
Federal Reserve Updates
Yellen: Iran Conflict Makes Fed More Reluctant to Cut Rates
Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen stated that the impact of the Iran conflict on oil markets will determine the extent of economic damage and inflationary pressure—complicating the Fed’s policy decisions.
- Inflation is already about one percentage point above target, with tariffs contributing nearly 0.5 points; a sharp rise in oil prices could prolong elevated inflation or push it higher.
- Market impact: The Fed’s near-term policy flexibility narrows; investors lower rate-cut expectations, potentially triggering a rebound in bond yields and dampening equity market recovery.
International Commodities
Iran Claims Closure of Strait of Hormuz; Oil Prices Post Largest Daily Gain Since June Last Year
An advisor to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed the Strait of Hormuz has been closed and warned that any vessel attempting passage would be targeted. The U.S. denied this claim, stating there are no signs of increased patrols or mine-laying activity.
- The UAE and Qatar have privately urged allies to persuade President Trump to limit military action and pursue diplomatic resolution; U.S. Secretary of State announced forthcoming measures to ease energy price pressures, while shutdowns at oil and gas facilities exacerbate shipping disruptions.
- Market impact: Surging energy prices amplify global inflation risks; energy stocks gain support—but prolonged conflict may dampen growth expectations and disrupt supply chains.
Macroeconomic Policy
U.S. Appeals Court Rejects Trump Administration’s Request to Extend Tariff Refund Deadline
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit rejected the Department of Justice’s request for an additional 90-day grace period, clearing procedural hurdles and initiating formal tariff refund proceedings.
- The Supreme Court has already ruled most of these tariffs invalid; hundreds of new lawsuits have been filed by companies, bringing the total number of cases to over 2,000; the refund process is expected to take several years.
- Market impact: Corporate cash inflows may alleviate trade-related pressure and stimulate investment, but short-term administrative uncertainty—combined with the Iran conflict—could reshape global trade dynamics.
II. Market Recap
Commodities & FX Performance
- Spot Gold: +0.6% to $5,353/oz, marking five consecutive weekly gains, driven by U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions and heightened safe-haven demand.
- Spot Silver: +1.95%, breaking above $90/oz; silver-gold ratio trending toward normalization.
- WTI Crude: +0.25% to $71.40/bbl, propelled by geopolitical tensions—posting its largest single-day gain since June last year.
- U.S. Dollar Index: +0.02% to 98.532, supported by safe-haven demand, weighing on emerging-market currencies.
Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: +3.62%, continuing its rebound—briefly breaching $70,000 before slight pullback.
- ETH: +3.55% to $2,030.
- Total Crypto Market Cap: +~2.7% to $2.43 trillion, as geopolitical tensions boost demand for digital assets as safe-haven alternatives.
- Liquidations: $132M longs liquidated, $212M shorts liquidated → Total liquidations: $344M.
U.S. Equity Indices Performance
- Dow Jones: −0.15%, extending correction amid concerns over energy-driven inflation.
- S&P 500: +0.04%, supported by tech and energy stocks—overall volatility limited.
- Nasdaq: +0.36%, driven by AI and defense-related sectors, offsetting part of the geopolitical drag.
Tech Giants’ Updates
- Microsoft (MSFT): +>1%, buoyed by robust demand for AI infrastructure.
- Apple (AAPL): +0.2%, modest lift from new product launches boosting mid-tier market expectations.
- NVIDIA (NVDA): +~3%, reinforced AI leadership through investments in optical communications.
- Amazon (AMZN): −0.77%, e-commerce segment pressured by inflation expectations.
- Google (GOOG): −1.68%, intensified competition in search business.
- Meta (META): +0.83%, stable social-platform traffic.
- Tesla (TSLA): +0.77%, relatively resilient EV supply chain.
Overall, tech giants showed divergent performance: AI- and defense-related stocks gained favor amid the Iran conflict, while consumer-oriented names faced headwinds due to overlapping inflation concerns and geopolitical risk.
Sector Rotation Observations
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production +~4%
- Notable tickers: Trio Petroleum +167%, Battalion Oil +114%.
- Catalyst: Iran conflict lifts oil price expectations, spurring exploration demand.
Crypto-Related Stocks +>5%
- Notable tickers: Coinbase +>5%, MARA Holdings +>5%.
- Catalyst: Cryptocurrency market rebound and shift in safe-haven sentiment toward digital assets.
Space-Themed Stocks +~6%
- Notable tickers: AST SpaceMobile +~10%, Northrop Grumman +>6%.
- Catalyst: Rising expectations for defense-related satellite orders amid geopolitical tension.
Drone-Themed Stocks +~5%
- Notable tickers: Red Cat Holdings +>17%, Ondas +~6%.
- Catalyst: Escalating conflict enhances prospects for defense-tech applications.
Rare Earth-Themed Stocks +>8%
- Notable tickers: United States Antimony +>19%, USA Rare Earth +>10%.
- Catalyst: Supply-chain disruption concerns underscore strategic importance of critical resources.
III. In-Depth Stock Analysis
1. NVIDIA – $4B Strategic Investment in Optical Communications
Event Summary: NVIDIA entered into multi-year partnerships with Lumentum and Coherent, committing $2 billion each ($4 billion total) to advance optical technology R&D and manufacturing—accelerating AI infrastructure scale-up and supporting gigawatt-scale AI compute factories. CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that this initiative will drive breakthroughs in silicon photonics, enhancing AI compute speed and energy efficiency. Market Interpretation: Analysts view this investment as solidifying NVIDIA’s dominance in AI; Wall Street raised price targets, forecasting >20% revenue growth—but supply-chain dependency remains a key risk. Investment Takeaway: Sustained AI demand supports long-term holding; short-term upside may stem from expanding defense-AI applications.
2. Apple – Launches iPhone 17e and New iPad Air Targeting Mid-Tier Market
Event Summary: Apple launched the iPhone 17e (A19 chip, 256GB storage, single-camera, 60Hz display) and M4-powered iPad Air (30% performance uplift) at unchanged pricing; both go on sale March 11. The iPhone 18 series and Apple’s first foldable iPhone—slated for launch this fall—are seen as pivotal hardware milestones aimed at preserving market share and unlocking new growth avenues. Market Interpretation: Analysts note the mid-tier focus helps counter Android competition, though limited innovation may constrain premium pricing; institutional views remain positive on foldables, expecting ~10% incremental revenue contribution. Investment Takeaway: Improved sales momentum may support share price—monitor supply-chain stability and broader consumer recovery.
3. AST SpaceMobile – Q4 Revenue Soars Over 27x YoY
Event Summary: Q4 revenue surged to $54.31M, up >2700% YoY from $1.92M; full-year 2025 guidance stands at $70.9M, driven primarily by mobile operator and government partnerships; net loss widened to $73.97M, reflecting stepped-up R&D investment. Market Interpretation: Institutions remain optimistic on satellite communications’ long-term outlook; Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating, citing amplified defense applications amid conflict—but path to profitability remains unproven. Investment Takeaway: Geopolitical events benefit space-sector exposure; high growth potential comes with elevated volatility—suited for risk-tolerant investors.
4. MongoDB – Q4 Revenue Up 27%, Yet Shares Plunge After Hours
Event Summary: FY2026 Q4 revenue reached $695.1M (+27% YoY); subscription revenue: $673.1M; services revenue: $22M; adjusted EPS: $1.65; net income: $15.53M—yet conservative forward guidance triggered investor concern. Market Interpretation: Analysts acknowledge strong growth but cite margin compression and macro uncertainty as reasons for downward revisions; shares fell nearly 24% after hours. Investment Takeaway: Cloud database demand remains steady; consider waiting for pullback to enter—focusing on enterprise digital transformation trends.
IV. Cryptocurrency Project Updates
1. PayPay plans Nasdaq IPO to raise $1.1B; holds 40% stake in Binance Japan.
2. HyperLiquid emerges as retail “bear-market playground,” with weekend trading activity surging.
3. Bitmine increases ETH holdings to 4.47 million tokens, spending $98M.
4. Tether and Anchorage engage Deloitte to audit USAT reserves; first report published.
5. Strategy purchases 3,015 BTC, bringing total holdings to 720,000 BTC.
V. Today’s Market Calendar
Data Release Schedule
| 09:45 | U.S. | PMI Services Final | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 10:00 | U.S. | ISM Manufacturing PMI | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 10:00 | U.S. | ISM Manufacturing Price Index | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 08:15 | U.S. | ADP Employment Change | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| 08:30 | U.S. | Trade Balance | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Key Event Preview
March 4 (Wednesday)
U.S. releases February ADP employment figures, S&P Global Services PMI final, and February ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI;
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang participates in a fireside chat at Morgan Stanley’s TMT (Technology, Media & Telecom) Conference in San Francisco;
After-hours: Chip giant Broadcom (AVGO) reports earnings—continuing market discussion on AI investment momentum; (5-star)
After-hours: Cybersecurity stock CrowdStrike reports earnings.
March 5 (Thursday)
21:30 ET: Weekly Initial Jobless Claims; 03:00 ET: Fed releases Beige Book.
March 6 (Friday)
21:30 ET: February Unemployment Rate and Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Payrolls—forecast: +60K jobs. (5-star)
*This week’s core U.S. equity themes center on escalating Middle East tensions, nonfarm payrolls, and earnings from tech bellwethers like Broadcom—amplifying market volatility.
Institutional Views:
U.S. equities face near-term pressure from Iran-conflict-induced risk aversion; divergence between Dow and Nasdaq underscores defensive positioning. Precious metals—gold and silver—gain safe-haven support, with gold targeting $5,400 and silver $92. Crude oil surges above $72/bbl amid Strait of Hormuz threats—volatility expected to intensify, though actual supply disruption risk remains limited. FX: Dollar index strength weighs on EUR/JPY, with safe-haven flows dominating. Overall, markets must guard against rising inflation delaying dovish expectations.
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