Where will the crypto market go after the "618" discount?
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Where will the crypto market go after the "618" discount?
The market will consolidate sideways or decline until the end of the third quarter / fourth quarter.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Ansem, crypto KOL
Translation: Felix, PANews
Crypto KOL Ansem has provided a brief analysis of the current state of the crypto market, which may help readers understand the price movements of various altcoins and where the market currently stands. Below is the full text.
According to Figure 1 (BTC) and Figure 2 (SOL), BTC and SOL prices have not yet broken below their March 2022 lows and could still undergo sideways consolidation before the next upward move.
BTC Price Movement (Figure 1)
SOL Price Movement (Figure 2)
In Figure 3, AVAX (similar to most altcoins) hovered within a range for about three months before breaking below its March 2024 low—does this mark the beginning of a new downtrend? Or is it simply capitulation before reclaiming key levels? Do you believe these altcoins will regain strength, or is the current sell-off overblown?
AVAX Price Movement (Figure 3)
4) AAVE (an older altcoin) has never entered an uptrend in this cycle and remains within its bear market range.
Are you betting that these altcoins will find new narratives and ultimately outperform other top 100 market cap tokens? Or do you expect them to continue underperforming? What would be the catalysts in each scenario? (e.g., MKR's Endgame Plan)
AAVE Price Movement (Figure 4)
Most high-market-cap memes such as PEPE and WIF follow trends similar to BTC and SOL; most newer infrastructure projects like TIA, ALTLAYER, and DYM resemble AVAX’s trajectory.
Many altcoins peaked in March 2024 and have already entered a downtrend. It can be said that they’ve already experienced most of their downside, and people are only now realizing it. Moving forward, strong narratives will be required for any altcoin to outperform.
There could be three possible scenarios ahead.
1) BTC and SOL remain outliers showing strength, with current support levels holding steady over recent months of consolidation ($58K–$60K for BTC and $110–$120 for SOL). After further sideways movement, other altcoins will have digested most of the downside and formed bottoms. (This aligns with the author’s current view—believing in continued consolidation/downside at least until end of Q3/Q4.)
2) The second scenario is that BTC and SOL are not outliers and will eventually follow a similar downward path as other altcoins.
In this case, we’d see true market-wide "capitulation," with SOL potentially falling to $85–$100 and BTC to $48K–$52K.
3) The possibility that the entire market has already peaked—a scenario the author considers unlikely but clearly the worst-case outcome. This would mean total altcoin market cap reaches only 50% of the previous cycle's peak.
In the author’s view, this scenario seems absurd. A more likely path is continued consolidation. With ongoing inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs and increasing application development across the ecosystem, the crypto market is passively moving in tandem with the stock market.
Of course, the above does not include any macroeconomic analysis or scenarios involving massive stock market sell-offs, which also pose potential risks. Therefore, this is solely the author’s personal opinion.
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