The Undervalued Ethena Fragment: The True "Golden Shovel"?
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
The Undervalued Ethena Fragment: The True "Golden Shovel"?
The market is undervaluing Shards, and YT USDe on Pendle still has 3x room for speculation.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: 0xYaro
Translation: Peng SUN, Foresight News
Ethena Labs Shards are an underrated "golden shovel," and their decision to rebrand "points" as "Shards" is also very smart—it’s so cool.
I did some math on the Ethena Shard price and feel it's currently undervalued. In short, rush to buy YT USDe on Pendle.
First, let’s estimate how many Shards Ethena Labs will issue in total. From February 19 to March 2, the campaign has already run for 12 days.
The current total number of Shards is 65.78 billion, with nearly 4 billion new Shards generated daily. Joo provided an unofficial forecast suggesting that over the next 2 to 4 epochs, Shard inflation rates will drop by 25% and 50% respectively from current levels.
Messari predicts the Ethena Shards campaign will end on March 20, leaving 18 days remaining. If this data is accurate, we can estimate the total circulating supply of Shards at approximately 138 billion (65.78 billion + 4 billion × 18 days).
Now let’s assess the value of a Shard. A conservative top-down approach assumes Ethena’s projected valuation of $2 billion, with 5% of the total token supply allocated to airdrops—approximately $100 million. This implies each Shard has an intrinsic value of about $0.0007258 ($100 million / 138 billion Shards).
From a bottom-up perspective, the market is currently undervaluing Ethena Shards. Each YT USDe on Pendle is now priced at $0.05 and generates 10 Shards per day. Over the next 18 days, each YT USDe will accumulate 180 Shards. This means the market is pricing 180 Shards at $0.05, implying a per-Shard value of $0.0002778 ($0.05 / 180 Shards). Buying YT USDe suggests there’s still 3x room for speculation on Shards.
That said, before everyone goes all-in on the Ethena Labs Shards campaign, please keep these risks in mind:
-
The above calculations are based on my own reasonable estimates and may not fully reflect actual conditions;
-
An airdrop does not mean immediate liquidity—profits may take a long time to realize;
-
Other risks including product and smart contract risks.
You can currently visit the Ethena Labs official website to deposit USDT, USDC, DAI, GHO, crvUSD, or mkUSD to mint USDe. Providing liquidity, locking, or staking USDe all earn Shards. However, based on the above analysis, I believe the best way to acquire Shards is by purchasing YT USDe on Pendle, which not only gives you access to 181x leveraged points but also allows you to claim Ethena’s 10x Shard rewards.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
@0xYaro
