friend.tech TVL remains stable while Key prices decline—how can this phenomenon be explained?
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friend.tech TVL remains stable while Key prices decline—how can this phenomenon be explained?
Bots and 5% FT fees are killing this market, reducing the chance to escape Ponzi dynamics.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights1. First, it's essential to understand that under a pure speculation assumption, purchasing a Key immediately results in a 22% loss on book value (the 10% is merely a smokescreen), and over a 70% loss when measured by EV (the 22% being the second layer of illusion);
2. After understanding step one, further calculation reveals that the Key price does not need to rise very high before the EV breakeven period is stretched toward infinity. At this point, the entire FT market becomes a repeated game of "Guess 2/3 of the Mean," where the speculative threshold for equilibrium price continuously declines. This is precisely the current phase—capital is flowing toward Keys at lower prices, while lower-market-cap segments are already dominated by bots;
3. The way to break this deadlock lies in creating utility that lowers certain Keys' priority in potential liquidations, thereby increasing the EV of other Keys and ultimately escaping the Ponzi structure. Unfortunately, bots and the 5% FT fee are killing this market and eliminating any possibility of such a breakthrough.
4. Understanding the difference between EV and book value:
Zhang San, Li Si, and Wang Wu jointly fund the purchase of a cow, a duck, and an egg;
They agree that the first person to exit takes the cow, the second takes the duck, and the last one gets the egg;
Each of Zhang San, Li Si, and Wang Wu believes they have a claim equivalent to owning a full cow;
But in reality, their claims are equal;
There are six possible outcomes, in which each of them takes:
1) Cow, Duck, Egg
2) Cow, Egg, Duck
3) Egg, Duck, Cow
4) Egg, Cow, Duck
5) Duck, Cow, Egg
6) Duck, Egg, Cow
All six outcomes are equally probable;
Therefore, what Zhang San truly owns = 2/6 × Cow + 2/6 × Duck + 2/6 × Egg;
That is, 1/3 of a cow, 1/3 of a duck, and 1/3 of an egg;
Now Zhao Liu joins the game and contributes a house;
At the moment he joins, the house is divided into four parts, with Zhang San, Li Si, and Wang Wu each receiving 1/4;
This is why, from an EV perspective, buying in results in an immediate loss of over 70%.
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